Gulf States Issue Ultimatum to Iran: Halt Attacks or Face War

A number of countries in the region have officially demanded that Tehran change its course, threatening a forceful response. However, pro-American leaders have failed to take into account that Iran has virtually nothing to lose.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Vyacheslav Argenberg, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Doha, Qatar, aerial view

Iran's Neighbors Deliver an Ultimatum

Saudi Arabia held a meeting to discuss the war with Iran. The gathering in Riyadh was attended by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey.

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, spoke about Iran's violation of Islamic principles, the foremost being not to attack neighboring Muslim states. The final statement described Iran's strikes on Gulf countries as unjustified, noting that "civilian infrastructure and residential areas” have become targets. The document contains a direct demand for Tehran to immediately halt its attacks.

Faisal separately stated that if Tehran had counted on the inability of Gulf Arab states to respond to its strikes, it had made a serious miscalculation. According to him, both Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region possess all the necessary military capabilities and will use them if required.

In essence, this amounts to an ultimatum: either Iran stops blocking oil exports and attacking US allies, or a full-scale regional conflict begins.

Ultimatum Unlikely to Affect Iran

At the same time, these countries completely ignore the fact that attacks on Iran are being carried out from US air bases located on their territory and from US naval vessels in their territorial waters. The United States currently maintains a significant military presence in the region — approximately 30,000 to 50,000 personnel are stationed in Gulf countries, including major bases in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Azerbaijan fits into the broader pro-American coalition through growing security ties with Israel and the West.

It appears that the ultimatum will not influence Iran, as it quite literally has nothing to lose compared to its neighbors. For Tehran, the current military escalation and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz represent a way to reset a long-standing unacceptable situation. If Iran cannot freely sell its oil and live as it wishes, it will seek to ensure that no one in the region can sell oil either, and that US allies also face difficulties maintaining their economic stability. This is presented as a logical position.

Gulf Monarchies Face Higher Stakes

For the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, however, war would mean the collapse of their ambitious plans to become global financial and tourism hubs, not to mention energy losses. A single successful strike on a desalination plant or a skyscraper could trigger capital flight and population outflows. Unlike Iran, which has long adapted to isolation, Gulf monarchies are deeply integrated into the global market, making any instability catastrophic for them.

From this perspective, Iran's proposal — to remove US military bases and begin building cooperative relations — appears more выгодным for these states.

Cyprus as a Comparative Example

An illustrative example is the response of Nikos Christodoulides, President of Cyprus, to strikes on British bases located on the island. He proposed dismantling them after the end of the Middle East conflict. Christodoulides stated that the government bears responsibility for the safety of more than 10,000 Cypriots living on territories used for US and British operations without prior notification to Cypriot authorities.

This is presented as the stance of a national leader rather than that of a subordinate ally.

Moreover, British bases in Cyprus are legally British territory — a legacy of colonial history — whereas US bases in the Gulf exist because local monarchies granted access under bilateral agreements. Arab states could request the withdrawal of US forces at any time, as Iraq did, but they have not done so, instead issuing what are described as self-destructive ultimatums.

Notably, neither Iraq nor Oman attended the Riyadh meeting, despite the presence of US forces on their territory. This is interpreted not only as a desire to avoid escalation but also as indirect support for Tehran.