Oman’s Surprise Move: Why the Sultanate Turned Away From Trump’s Board of Peace Initiative

Oman unexpectedly refused to join Donald Trump's "Board of Peace,” demonstrating support for Tehran. This fundamentally changes the balance of power in the Middle East.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Mostafameraji, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

Muttrah-Muscat مطرح، مسقط 23

Oman's Pro-Iranian Stance Seizes Initiative From UAE

Oman has declared that it does not intend to move closer to the US president's "Board of Peace.”

"We reaffirm our solidarity with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as with Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon… we will not normalize relations with Israel and we will not join the "Board of Peace,'” the country's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The decision of the Sultan of Oman indicates that the country is not afraid of a cooling of relations with Washington at the most critical moment of the war with Iran, effectively demonstrating support for Tehran.

As we know, the East is a subtle matter, so the essence lies not only in political neutrality (Oman served as a mediator in negotiations between Iran and the United States) and the desire to avoid strikes by Iranian UAVs, but also in the ambition to seize regional leadership from the United Arab Emirates - the "second Switzerland.” The point is that investors have begun fleeing from Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which are under constant strikes by the Iranian Air Force. At the same time, the implementation of the strategy Oman Vision 2040 предусматривает steps to transform the country into an alternative financial and logistical hub competing with the UAE.

Through its statements Oman is positioning itself as a stable and safe place for capital — not involved in military alliances and possessing an independent legal system. Muscat hopes to become a gateway for investments from countries that wish to avoid the geopolitical risks associated with the policies of the United States and Israel in the region. And that means, essentially, all countries of the world.

Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia May Support Oman

Other countries of the region may join Oman. First of all, this includes Kuwait, where anti-Israeli sentiment is strong both in parliament and among the population. These sentiments will only intensify after Iranian strikes on the American bases Ali Al-Salem and Camp Buehring, in which Kuwaiti servicemen were killed.

This also concerns Qatar, which may refuse the American base Al-Udeid, already effectively wiped off the map. Moreover, due to Iranian attacks the company QatarEnergy was forced to declare force majeure on a number of contracts, while Hamad International Airport temporarily suspended operations. This also undermined Qatar's image as an absolutely safe global financial and logistical hub.

And finally there is Saudi Arabia, which has not declared war on Iran despite pressure from the United States. Riyadh froze the implementation of the Abraham Accords and began signaling that it will not allow its airspace to be used for strikes against Iran. All the countries mentioned are extremely dissatisfied with the inability of the United States to protect them from Iranian UAV and missile strikes, which destabilize the region and turn their populations into hostages.

Gulf Monarchs Are Not Foolish People

For the United States, neutrality — and even more so a drift of the Gulf states toward Iran — would mean the largest military and geopolitical defeat in the region since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. For years the United States has been building a unified air and missile defense network (MEAD) that would link the radars and interceptors of Israel and the Arab monarchies. Now this project has collapsed. Most likely Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will close their airspace to US Air Force operations after the war with Iran and dismantle the bases with their radars. No one will want to risk again their main sources of livelihood — oil, gas, tourism, and investments.

The United States will also fail to accomplish its main task in the region — the full integration of Israel through the Abraham Accords. They will be frozen and quietly sink into oblivion, just like the promises of the monarchies to invest trillions of dollars in the United States. Israel risks remaining a besieged fortress surrounded by countries that are formally neutral but in practice coordinate their security with Tehran.

If the countries of the region abandon the American military presence ("Why do we need it if we have friendship with Iran?”), this will cast doubt on Washington's global leadership. Neutrality will be accompanied by closer ties with BRICS. If Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates begin to trade oil more actively in yuan or other currencies — something already being discussed within BRICS — this will deliver a direct blow to the petrodollar.

At the same time the Gulf monarchs are intelligent enough not to proclaim this loudly. Everything will happen behind the scenes and gradually, provoking fury in Washington. As they say, the pride of nations supposedly "chosen by God” is punished from above not immediately, but inevitably — with a deafening effect.