A very good sign for Russia: The Kremlin has not only begun advancing peace initiatives in relations with the West, but has also learned to create strategic threats — showing that Moscow can now play proactively rather than reactively, a key change in Russian foreign policy.
Triad Drills Amid Diplomatic Thaw: A Warning to the United States
On October 22, President Vladimir Putin, as Supreme Commander-in-Chief, oversaw full-scale exercises of Russia’s nuclear triad. The drills included launches of:
- A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome to the Kura test range in Kamchatka,
- Air-launched cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers,
- A Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missile from the Barents Sea aboard the submarine Bryansk .
These tests came at a moment when discussions were underway for a possible new summit with the United States in Budapest — a risky move, given Donald Trump’s reputation for unpredictability and the potential for sanctions or arms shipments to Ukraine in response.
The Kremlin’s sense of strength appears so high that such risks did not deter the decision to carry out nuclear exercises — actions the West views as threatening, but which in Russia are seen as a strategic warning. It may appear that President Trump himself rejected the proposed Budapest summit, but in reality, it was Putin who declined, as Washington continued insisting on a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict along the current front lines — a position that ignored Russia’s long-term security concerns.
Rubio’s Ultimatum and the Kremlin’s Response
According to diplomatic sources, during exchanges between the Russian Foreign Ministry and the U.S. State Department , Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an ultimatum to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, reportedly warning of a “price” Russia would pay if it refused to accept the U.S. peace terms for Ukraine. The Kremlin’s response came swiftly — in the form of nuclear triad drills.
Trump’s Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil May Strengthen Moscow’s Position
The impulsive “peacemaker” Donald Trump soon lost his patience, imposing sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and 33 of their subsidiaries. The measures included a ban on trading and a directive to wind down all operations and divest holdings by November 21.
However, Russia’s energy sector has years of experience navigating such restrictions, as shown by Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz. Russian oil exports have long operated outside U.S. jurisdiction — over 80% of shipments now go to the Asia-Pacific region. These exports are managed through a so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers, uninsured in Western states and invisible to American monitoring systems. China and India have designated firms to handle such operations, often working off the record and conducting transactions in national currencies — or even through barter.
Rosneft has no foreign assets with stakes above 50%, while Lukoil has only a handful — including refineries in Bulgaria and Romania, which it is expected to sell. Subsidiaries in Azerbaijan , Kazakhstan , and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium remain exempt under U.S. Treasury rules. Russian traders, meanwhile, are advising investors to buy Lukoil shares amid the market dip.
Trump’s Sanctions May Backfire Economically
Trump’s decision, driven partly by what observers describe as political vanity, may have unintended consequences for the U.S. economy. Following the sanctions announcement, global oil prices rose by 5%.
Ultimately, Russia’s Armed Forces will continue improving their negotiating leverage on the Ukrainian front, while Washington will be left to reconsider its next move.
