Azerbaijan on Collision Course with Russia: Is War Inevitable?

Azerbaijan is rapidly dismantling its bilateral relationship with Russia — a trajectory reminiscent of Ukraine’s own path to war.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Gulustan, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Azerbaijan flag

Is it a coincidence that Rosatom is now selling its stake in the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant?

The first cracks in relations appeared after a plane crash in Aktau, where Azerbaijani media claimed Moscow had allegedly ordered the shootdown. Tensions flared again after a criminal group in Yekaterinburg — predominantly composed of Azerbaijani nationals — was taken down by Russian authorities. For the past five days, local Azerbaijani outlets have been awash with anti-Russian rhetoric, urging diaspora communities to protest.

If Baku were to leverage organized criminal groups to orchestrate terror attacks in Russia, and Turkey were to enter the fray, a military confrontation wouldn’t be so far-fetched. The Ankara-Baku “Turanist tandem,” emboldened by victories over Russia in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, has already shown signs of confidence. One such sign? Rosatom’s abrupt intent to sell its 49% stake in the Akkuyu project. Another: Turkey has tested its “Tayfun” ballistic missile three times.

War Between Russia and Azerbaijan Still Deemed Unlikely

Azerbaijani military analyst Aqil Rustamzade told Poland’s national broadcaster that Baku has simulated various war scenarios with Moscow. According to him, Russia would struggle to move large military formations through Azerbaijan’s mountainous terrain — though it could strike oil facilities with missiles. Still, he sees no real risk of escalation, as “Russia needs those missiles badly on the Ukrainian front.”

Russian analyst Anatoly Matviychuk, retired colonel and editor-in-chief of ANNA-NEWS, agrees. In comments to Pravda.Ru, he said:

"Turkey will not allow President Aliyev to clash directly with Russia, because such a conflict would immediately spill over into the Black Sea region and threaten Turkey’s own strategic interests. Let’s not forget: Russia maintains both naval and military bases in Armenia," he added.

War Scenarios Exist — and They Involve the West

But not all experts are so dismissive. Sergey Lipovoy, chairman of the Officers of Russia national organization, does not rule out war. He believes Turkey and the UK are trying to provoke a conflict between Baku and Moscow, banking on Russia’s entanglement in Ukraine to weaken it further.

“Russia borders Azerbaijan through Dagestan. It’s quite plausible that a provocation might occur in one of Azerbaijan’s border regions, potentially even involving civilian casualties. Baku could then blame Moscow — with all the consequences that entails,” Lipovoy explained to Pravda.Ru.

The Sünik Corridor: The Real Prize?

Let’s draw our own scenarios. At the heart of most wars lie two motives: logistics and resources. Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are fixated on securing the Sünik Corridor through Armenia to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan. This would create a direct transport route from China to Europe — bypassing Russia altogether.

For now, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is bargaining, demanding that Armenia’s territorial integrity be respected in exchange for the corridor. But elections are looming, and if Pashinyan loses, the Turanist powers may act before it's too late. Should a blitzkrieg fail, Moscow could invoke its CSTO obligations and come to Armenia’s military aid.

It is also abundantly clear: in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict during or after the Ukraine campaign — particularly involving Turkey — Baku will side with NATO.