Retired Jets, Real Risks: Ukraine’s F-16 Gamble Backfires

As more F-16 fighter jets enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the fervent talk about this aircraft as a game-changing "wunderwaffe" has noticeably died down. How so?

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F-16 fighter jet

Ukraine Receives Worn and Obsolete F-16s

On May 26, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans announced that the Netherlands would deliver its final F-16 Fighting Falcon to Ukraine, completing its pledge of 24 aircraft. In total, between 60 and 80 jets have been promised by the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway, with roughly half delivered so far. A fleet of 40 to 45 aircraft should, in theory, make an impact-but Ukrainian media remain curiously silent about heroic feats in the skies. What's more, Ukraine has officially confirmed the loss of three F-16s, while Russian sources claim as many as ten have been downed.

Some military analysts had speculated that the F-16s-alongside long-range ATACMS missiles-could shift the balance in Ukraine's favor, helping Kyiv "reclaim occupied territories." Yet neither system lived up to the hype. The first and perhaps most fundamental reason is the age and condition of the aircraft being delivered. The F-16s sent to Ukraine are Cold War-era models, many on the verge of retirement, complicating maintenance and raising operating costs. Reports have even suggested that some jets came from the U. S. Air Force's boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, sent not for combat but to cannibalize for parts.

No Match for the Su-35 and S-400 Tandem

Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat admitted that the F-16s are "not modern enough to go one-on-one with the Su-35" in aerial combat. He noted that a successful engagement with a Su-35 would require a sophisticated combined approach, involving onboard radar systems, electronic warfare capabilities, integrated ground-based air defense, and advanced air-to-air missiles. But Ukraine's Western partners have provided virtually none of that.

According to defense expert Peter Wijninga of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, "In a one-on-one fight, the Su-35 outclasses the F-16 thanks to its long-range radar and extended-range missiles." An F-16 pilot, he warns, might detect the Su-35's radar lock-but by then, it could already be too late.

Thus, when Ukrainian officials claim that all three F-16 losses were due to "technical malfunctions," the more likely explanation is that they fell victim to modern Russian air-to-air missiles-such as the highly advanced "Izdeliye 810," which boasts a range exceeding 400 km.

Vulnerable to S-400 Air Defense Systems

Another key threat to the F-16s is Russia's S-400 air defense system, capable of tracking the jets at distances over 300 km. Faced with the combined force of Su-35 fighters and S-400 batteries-operating under a network-centric command structure-the aging F-16s have not dared to engage Russian targets directly. Instead, they've been relegated to air defense duties, intercepting drones and cruise missiles. But even this role has become more difficult as Russian drones have grown more sophisticated, flying higher and faster, while employing stealth features and electronic warfare countermeasures.

Speculation has even arisen that the most recent F-16 loss, on May 16, may have resulted from a failed attempt to intercept a new version of the Geran drone using the jet's onboard cannon. This sixth-generation Geran no longer relies on GPS, instead navigating via artificial intelligence and utilizing Ukraine's own internet networks for targeting.

No Defense Against Overwhelming Force

Finally, what can a fleet of 45 aging F-16s really do in the face of Russia's increasingly large-scale aerial assaults? On May 25 alone, Ukraine reported an onslaught of 298 drones and 69 missiles of various types and launch platforms. Against that kind of barrage, no amount of outdated Western fighters will change the tide.