Istanbul Talks Have High Chances to Fail, Like All Previous Peace Attempts

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he was expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend negotiations in Istanbul. In Turkey, Zelensky hopes to discuss a ceasefire and a full "all for all" prisoner exchange. Zelensky said he was seeking a "political victory" from the meeting. Ukraine will not survive if the fighting drags on for years.

Photo: web.archive.org by Andrzej Szkopiński, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Istanbul

“It’s important to understand the purpose of my meeting with Putin. We can’t agree on everything right now — that’s impossible. But we must find some format to end the war,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview with Liberation publication.

Zelensky’s Objectives

Zelensky told reporters that his main goal at the talks is to secure a complete prisoner exchange. He also demands an immediate, unconditional ceasefire.

The talks in Istanbul must not be merely symbolic. According to Zelensky, if Putin refuses to attend personally, it would indicate he is “not seeking a political victory.”

Ukraine Won’t Survive

The Ukrainian president said Ukraine is “standing firm” at present — arms and drone deliveries have improved, although bureaucratic delays remain a problem. Nonetheless, he warned that a prolonged conflict would have devastating consequences for Ukraine.

“No one knows how long this conflict will last. But not for ten years. Ukraine will not survive... This is costly for everyone, not just for friends, but for enemies too,” he said.

Zelensky also called on the US and EU to impose new, tougher sanctions on Russia. 

Istanbul Talks Will Most Likely Fail

Observers note, however, that the talks in Istanbul have high chances to fail, like all previous Russia-Ukraine talks, meetings and ceasefire initiatives. 

First, there are still no political or military prerequisites for peace talks. The Armed Forces of Ukraine barely manage to hold the line in Donbas, despite personnel shortages. Meanwhile, Kyiv still enjoys strong international support from the UK, France, and Germany. These three countries effectively block US attempts to push for a rapid settlement.

It appears that Zelensky’s strategy is to play along with Trump just enough to avoid provoking his anger, but not so much as to tie himself to any firm commitments for a peace deal.

As for Russia, Moscow firmly holds the initiative on the battlefield and clearly has no intention of loosening its grip simply to give Trump something to brag about to voters. That’s why Russia is dodging the proposed 30-day ceasefire and is putting forward alternative ideas, like direct negotiations, instead.

Moscow wants to test Kyiv’s sincerity before moving into serious discussions about a peace agreement. At the same time, Moscow appears eager to buy time to be able to finish the spring-summer military campaign and try to secure better terms for itself.

To crown it all, all previous ceasefire attempts have been wasted. Naval ceasefires, moratoriums on strikes against energy infrastructure, the Easter and Victory Day truces — all of these initiatives collapsed amid the chaos of the negotiation process.

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Istanbul is the largest city in Turkey, straddling the Bosporus Strait, the boundary between Europe and Asia. It is considered the country's economic, cultural and historic capital. The city has a population of over 15 million residents, comprising 19% of the population of Turkey, and is the most populous city in Europe and the world's 17th-most populous city.