Putin relies on intel data, takes risk to agree to Trump's peace plan in full

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly approved Donald Trump's peace plan in full, taking into account intelligence assessments, while Moscow announced that Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will visit this week – suggesting a backup plan is in play.

Photo: flickr.com by nycmayorsoffice, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

USA and Ukraine flags

Trump's Peace Plan Rejected by EU, UK, and Ukraine

On April 22, it became clear that peace negotiations in London between the US, EU, and Ukraine regarding Trump's proposal would not take place. At the last moment, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's chief envoy Steve Witkoff declined to attend. Rubio had previously warned he would not go unless allies – the EU and Ukraine – aligned with the US plan.

Rubio also reiterated that the US would withdraw from mediating between Russia and Ukraine if there was no positive response. The summit in London has now been downgraded; only Keith Kellogg, the US special representative for Ukraine, is expected to attend.

According to Western media, Trump's plan (which has not been officially released) reportedly includes:

• Formal recognition of Crimea as part of Russia
• De facto acceptance of Russian control in parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, pending local jurisdictional votes
• Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO
• Lifting of all post-2014 sanctions against Russia
• Neutral status for territories surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), with US oversight and shared access to electricity for Russia and Ukraine

EU, UK, and Ukraine Push Back

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly criticized the proposed recognition of Crimea as Russian territory – though some in the West argue the US never demanded that explicitly. Zelensky insisted his delegation to London only has a mandate to discuss a ceasefire and rejected US control over the ZNPP.

The EU refused to lift sanctions on Russia and demanded security guarantees and economic support for Ukraine. EU and UK leaders also strongly oppose recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Their stance suggests they believe Ukraine can continue the war without direct US involvement, relying on European support.

Moscow Plays Its Hand

Moscow had preemptively announced Witkoff's visit-an indication that Russia has prepared an alternative course. Some speculate that Moscow, guided by Putin's strategic diplomacy, agreed to Trump's plan fully, knowing in advance that it would be rejected by Ukraine and the EU. Presenting it as a compromise now works in Russia's favor.

As a result, Russia's special military operation (SMO) is expected to continue, with the US potentially stepping back from peace talks and Ukrainian support. Moscow and Washington may now shift focus to other geopolitical topics like Iran, Syria, space, and business.

Russia Holds the Strongest Position

Russia currently has the most stable footing among the negotiating parties. Its economy is reportedly growing despite sanctions, Russian forces are on the offensive, volunteer numbers are increasing, and domestic sentiment remains positive.

Soon, some EU countries may vote to block the renewal of sanctions against Russia. That could lead to either an EU rift or a pivot toward US-led cooperation with Moscow. Meanwhile, Ukraine may face further referendums and a potential military collapse.