What if China recognises Crimea? Beijing unwilling to talk to Ukraine

Fearing Beijing's revenge for Taiwan on the Ukrainian field, Washington asked Volodymyr Zelensky to talk to Xi Jinping.

Zelensky wants to talk to Xi Jinping

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told The South China Morning Post that he was looking for an opportunity to speak "directly" with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to "help end the war with Russia."

The President of Ukraine said that since February 24 (the beginning of the special operation), "we officially requested a conversation, but we have not had any talks with China, although I believe that this would be useful."

Back in March, Zelensky's office told Newsweek that Kyiv was expecting talks between Zelensky and Xi to take place "very soon." They have never spoken since then, though. Noteworthy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken to his Chinese counterpart at least twice since February 24.

The Kremlin said after the second phone talk that the Chinese leader approved of "the legitimacy of Russia's actions to protect fundamental national interests."

Moscow and Beijing have strengthened their geo-strategic partnership lately. Being members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China act as the defenders of the international order that is free from Western influence in general and from the American leadership in particular. There is no doubt that Zelensky can see it, but he still makes the humiliating request.

Zelensky wants Xi to cut trade with Russia

In the interview, Zelensky asked for more sympathy for his plight.

"The Russians are invaders… this is a war on our territory. China, as a big and strong country, may come and sort of put the Russian Federation in a certain place. Of course, I would really like China to revise its attitude towards the Russian Federation,” said Zelensky.

He even suggests what Beijing should do.

"I'm sure that without the Chinese market, Russia would feel in complete economic isolation. This is what China can do — limit trade (with Russia)," he added.

China boosts trade with Russia

One only needs to look at the statistics to see that…

China has considerably increased the volume of cargo transportation through checkpoints on the Amur River. According to the Consulate General of Russia in the city of Harbin, three to four barge-towing vessels arrive weekly from Khabarovsk to the Western River Port of the Chinese city of Tongjiang. The cargo turnover of this port at the beginning of August exceeded 70,000 tons.

Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms of oil supplies to China and has become China's main oil supplier. Crude oil imports from Russia to China rose by 55 percent in June compared to the previous year, with an overall reduction in demand in China due to the pandemic.

According to the results of the first half of 2022, Russian pipeline gas supplies to China increased by 63.4 percent.

Zelensky fulfills US demand

Zelensky understands the futility of his undertaking, but he has to fulfill Washington's wishes, where they know that Beijing can take revenge on the United States in Ukraine.

Beijing can do the following:

• stop observing neutrality in the supplies of Russian strike drones,
• start delivering data from Chinese satellites (499 versus Russia's 185),
• send volunteers to the front in the Donbass.

Additionally, China could resort to SCO and BRICS mechanisms in economy and set up a front of solidarity with the Russian Federation.

If these measures are implemented, the situation for Ukraine and the United States in Europe will turn from bad to catastrophic.

In addition, China may recognize Crimea as Russian. China may also recognise the results of the upcoming referendums in the Ukrainian regions that expressed their wish to become part of Russia. If a member of the UN Security Council does it, the domino effect will be triggered.

The only problem is that Xi Jinping is well aware that Zelensky will no longer be in post-war Ukraine. There may no be such a country as post-war Ukraine at all.