Egypt: Bright future and stability for all?

Mohammed Mursi, one of the leaders of "the Muslim Brotherhood," became President of Egypt. He secured over 51 percent of the vote. The former Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq scored 48 percent of the vote.

The second round of the presidential elections in Egypt took place on June 16-17. It should be noted that voter turnout was not too high and barely exceeded 50 percent (in the first round, however, it was even lower - about 46 percent).

Immediately after the election, both candidates declared their victory. During the week when the votes were counted (the process was inhibited due to numerous complaints of the candidates), the tension was growing. Supporters of Mursi gathered in Tahrir Square and did not disperse until the announcement of the results.

The natural question - what is next? On the one hand, Mursi received his doctorate in the West. On the other hand, it is no secret that he intends to introduce Shariah in Egypt.

We should also consider the fact that the winner of the presidential elections is the Chairman of the Party of Freedom and Justice that units not only the "Muslim Brotherhood". In addition, the military are not going to leave the political scene in Egypt.

At the international level Mursi's victory is not questioned by anyone. The comments in this regard refer to respecting the choice of the people of Egypt and call for the new president of the country to observe the international obligations of the former leadership of Egypt. Mursi, however, has assured that he was not going to abandon them.

Although at an informal level, of course, there are voices of politicians and experts who fear the radicalization of Egypt after the victory of "the Muslim Brotherhood."

Sergei Demidenko, an expert with the Institute of Strategic Studies and Analysis is not inclined to dramatize the events in Egypt. "First, the election results are not as grim as they are presented by many publications," he told "Pravda.Ru."

"In fact, the Islamists in Egypt have not won. The victory belongs to quite a broad alliance of civil forces incorporated outside of the Party of Freedom and Justice under the auspices of the "Muslim Brotherhood." The Party of Freedom involves more than just the "Brothers." It includes both left and right, human rights activists and anyone at all. That is, on the one hand, the victory of Mursi in Egypt should be seen as a victory of civil society over the military dictatorship," he said.

"But at the same time, we should take into account that for the civilian president of Egypt it will be extremely difficult to carry out the reforms in the country, or any efforts to develop the economy, because in any case, it will face serious opposition of the military," said the expert.

"Yes, Mursi has won; there is a civilian president of Egypt. But the Supreme Council of the armed forces of Egypt, headed by Marshal Tantawi. is still here, and also has a fairly significant position. In my opinion, now in Egypt, dual power can be formed when the civilian President will enforce his course, and the military - their own. The military are united, have the money and power. They will be limiting Mursi ", - said Sergey Demidenko.

There is one more important point, the expert said. "The Party of Freedom and Justice has no program for the reform of the country. They talk a great deal about the fact that Egypt is plagued with corruption, that socio-economic project of Mubarak has exhausted itself, etc. But they do not have a coherent program of reforms at this time.

Their program is slogans. What Mursi would actually do, where he will lead the country in the situation of a rather harsh confrontation with the military (and there are still Salafis - the third serious enough force that affects the political situation), is difficult to say," said the analyst. He added that it was not the time to talk about the reform in Egypt.

Speaking about possible changes in the foreign policy of the country after the victory of Mursi, the political analyst pointed out that "Egypt will not deviate from any of the principles that have been laid out since Anwar Sadat."

"He will keep the course of cooperation with the West, he will not fight with Israel and have a destructive effect on the situation in the Middle East," Demidenko said.

Anton Kulikov


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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov