Group of Two and the New World Disorder

In light of the "G-8" summit at Camp David, the Western press engaged in the analysis of the international situation and forecasts for the future. The transformation of the world system, according to some, is possible only after the "G-Zero," that is, a catastrophe or war that always leads to a new world order ... or disorder.

Welcome to the New World Disorder - Ian Bremer titled his material for the publication in the American Foreign Policy. The subtitle reads: "G-8 is not to save the world. It's time to prepare the United States for G-Zero."

The author reminds that World War II brought the United States to the rank of the superpower.

For a new world order to emerge, it will take some natural or other disaster, or the fear of its imminent approach, Bremer is convinced. The author does not disclose the genesis of this "zero crisis" or its possible scenarios.

Wondering about what will happen next and who will lead this new world, the author examines the future from a position of interdependence between the preservation of the United States and China. The world can be managed solely in the format of "G-2" - Beijing and Washington. Other scenarios one way or another would take into account the presence of these two major players.

If "G-Zero" brings together the positions of the two giants, then, by the precepts of Zbigniew Brzezinski, an era of "G-2" will start. In addition, the American author points out that in this scenario, China will need large, happy and confident middle class that will be the mainstay of the state.

At the same time, China will remain a slave in this two-country team. Bremer suggests that the condition of the union could be a reduction of the Chinese military spending. He proposes to allocate the freed-up funds for the formation of China's pension system and restructuring of the economy.

The US will protect the interests of the two outside of Asia through military force, but it would require a level of mutual trust that has not yet been reached.

The rivalry between the two powers, the United States and China, can trigger the scenario of "Cold War 2.0." This will be an atypical war where currency wars, limiting access to markets and direct foreign investment, cyber espionage, cyber-attacks, interruption of information flow and incapacitation of critical infrastructure will be used under the conditions of high interdependence and assured mutual destruction of the economies. Neither Chinese nor American strategists can predict who will win this war.

If the U.S. and China as part of their hegemony decide to delegate the function of "watchers" to a number of other countries, we will see a "concert of nations," similar to the "European concert" that united Britain, the Russian Empire, Austria, Prussia, and later France to restore and maintain peace in Europe after the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars. This will be the interaction similar to "G-20", only stronger and more viable, the author is convinced.

However, the development of the world according to this scenario is doubtful, as the general fear of the collapse is unlikely to be long and strong enough to support such a long-term process.

The development of the world according to the regional scenario where the key areas of the world will evolve independently, involves the allocation of local leaders who control their "plots".

In Europe, this country could be Germany that may have to deal with Russia's encroachments on leadership. Russia's growing influence will be contributed by high oil prices or successful diversification of the economy.

Moscow under this scenario will have an opportunity to strengthen its economic and political influence in most of the former Soviet Union. Kazakhstan that has developed business relations with China and Germany may maintain some independence, the author believes. Ukraine or Georgia is likely to fall into the Russian sphere of influence.

According to Bremer, the implementation of this scenario would interfere with the final and complete resolution of transnational problems caused by the mysterious period of "G-Zero." Two regions - the Middle East and Asia - have the greatest potential to incite conflict.

Finally, there is a scenario that involves removal of Russia from the map. It was called "G-minus." It is assumed that the problems caused by "G- zero" may discredit the government and force people to seek alternatives to state.

In a sense, this is the most convenient way for the United States, although Bremer points out that this scenario is the worst of all presented.

In this case, China will be forced to concentrate on solving the internal problems, which would weaken the country's position in the international arena.

Russia may become entirely uncontrollable after the era of the "G-zero." Bremer points to the biggest vulnerability of the current Russian Federation - its administrative-territorial division, which creates conditions for the separation of embryonic nation-states now emerging in Russia, and reminds that the Russian Empire was divided into the Soviet Union in the same manner.

In this case, the weakening of the leadership and fragmentation of power in some countries creates conditions for the scenario of "G-Zero" even inside some of the world's major economies, concludes Bremer.

Anatoly Miranovsky


Read the original in Russian

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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov