The New Year, dear readers, will not be a good year. We are living in the proverbial Chinese "interesting times" and 2009 promises to do its best to keep things "interesting." So on with the show.
There will be scattered protests and some will turn violent as the economy worsens. The government's plans to sustain industrial production, in the heavy industries, and to weaken the ruble and implement high tariffs will have the desired effects of keeping the nation from all out recession. Inflation will continue, though at a smaller pace, due to the overall global deflationary manner. Over all, the Russian economy will prove one of the strongest in the general world collapse.
The Russian military will continue to rebuild, as part of the government spending programs to keep heavy industry going. Weapon sales will also increase as wars and tensions spread due to the crisis.
The Anglo-Marxist drive to start a new Cold War will only increase and monies spent on "democratic" initiatives will increase. This will cause Other Russia to be emboldened enough to create more spectacles for Western financing and consumption. Eventually one or two will turn very violent and there will be deaths. The Russian government will label the National Bolshevik Workers' Party as a terrorist organization and arrest its leaders. The NBWP will turn to actual terror and there will be a small home grown terrorist threat throughout Russia. In general, the government will launch a major drive to clamp down on the skin heads. Gary Kasparov will flee to America where he will become rich making anti-Russian speeches and creating new anti-Russian hatred in the Anglo-Marxist sphere.
The demographic upswing will also suffer with fewer births, requiring more spending by the government to encourage people to continue having children. On the plus side, the inflow of the diasporas will increase, as conditions outside of Russia deteriorate and Russophobia spreads in the Anglo-Marxist sphere.
The new year is going to bring major suffering to the US economy and society. On the one hand, the Bank Panic of 2008, started in and by America, will continue to ravage the recessional economy. On the other hand, large swaths of the American demographic, who voted for Obama, are expecting miracles that the US government simply can not provide.
As industry after industry lines up for government handouts and large scale money printing to meet those demands escalates, the depressionary bought will, by mid year, turn into a raging inflationary bonfire. Savings will disappear over night. Add to this continued mass layoffs that will reach another 2 to 3 million people, and an unofficial unemployment rate of 15%+ (official US statistics are so doctored as to make them worthless), a series of wars that will continue to drain lives and treasure and the dashed hopes of tens of millions and the US is in for a very hot and horrid summer.
Demonstrations, riots and looting will break out in various sections of the country, hardest hit by the collapsing economy. The government, which in the US has a history of using draconian tactics once violence starts (or as in the case of Seattle in 1998 there was no need for violence for the police to unleash hell on peaceful demonstrators) will lead to casualties and an escalation of tensions. The US army's North America command will be called in to affect areas, forcing martial law and gun confiscations.
By late summer, early fall, the foundations of the Civilian Defense Corp will be laid down. Echos of the Waffen SS anyone?
On the international front, the US will continue its imperial hubris, though maybe with a little more of a kinder face, but do not bet on it. Europe's disappointment will come fast.
Mexico will face complete collapse as a nation. With the US economy in free fall, tourism drying up, masses of uneducated peasants returning or being returned from the US, a raging drug war throughout the north and a Marxist insurgency in the south, the Mexican government will face mass unrest, military coups and revolts and ultimately a full failed state status.
Violence will escalate to unprecedented levels and will spill over the northern borders into America. This may actually justify a US incursion, though the Americans will be hard pressed to find enough troops to do this.
The major economies of south America will go through a lot of turmoil and suffering but should maintain relatively stable states. This is not their first time going down this road. Regimes will fall and change and by mid to late 2009, a low platue will be reached. The main nations to watch out for are Columbia and Venezuela. A simmering border war may flare up into a full scale conflict. However, since both now have military contracts and agreements with Russia, Russia shouldbe able to keep the violence to a minimum.
The economic collapse in the UK will continue a foot with the US. Rights of the citizens will continue to be usurped by the state and all pretenses of civil rights will disappear after the Islamics in the city center start to agitate and push out through direct violence all remaining British nationals. England will start to look a lot like Sweden with the cities owned by the immigrant Islamics and the refugee locals forced to pay the Islamics' welfare.
Once the majority starts leaning to the hard right and violence starts to break out between the military Islamics and the ultra nationalists, the UK government will drop all pretenses of the citizens rights and clamp down with martial law. Welcome to the Police State. If the public does not rise up at this point, the UK is lost.
To keep the audience nice and fearful, look for the British powers to escalate a Cold War with Russia, at any cost.
Spain will have elections and a center right government will win.
France will have early elections and will take a hard left turn. However, the Islamic ghettos will be blocked off as violence escalates. Watch for more socialist ordnances forcing businesses to hire more workers, whether they need them or not.
Ethnic cleansing of the gypsies and Islamic Arabs will pick up pace. The vigilante outfits will be nationalized, rather than just ignored by the police. Whatever tolerance there is now, will evaporate as the economy of Italy continues to shrink and there is less money to share between unemployed Italians and welfare immigrants. Italy will take a hard right.
Germany will continue moving to the right in politics. It's conservative economic stance and banking, along with a robust manufacturing industry will set it as a stable center of the EU. Watch for Germany to take on prominence like never before in Europe.
As Germany's economic stability, or relative stability, holds the EU together, the EU's economic policy will start to reflect the German desires and the Euro will finally attain a single unified strategy, that of Germany, who will not broach a US competitor in the EU.
Two things will grow from this. One Germany's relationship with fellow manufacturer and oil/gas producer Russia will grow. From this and the German desire to lead Europe, friction between Merkel and an imperial Obama will also grow. US attempts to undermine EU (thus German) economic links to Russia, through the use of Poland and the Baltics, will be noted and despised by the Germans as a whole. Germany will work hard to side line and minimize a collapsing Poland.
As its economy collapses, Poland will become even more of a puppet for the US regime. It will work hard to undermine EU efforts to expand relations with Russia. However, Poland's moment is past and the Germans, along with help from that moronically named "Old Europe" France and Italy, will work hard to side line and minimize Poland as a whole in the EU. Though the Poles will not be kicked out, their economic freebies by the EU will be put under threat until they shut up and sit down.
At the same time, sky rocketing unemployment, already higher than 15% (the average standard in Poland) will undermine any government strength.
Look for total economic collapse from the Baltics, much more so than anything the IMF will be willing to fund. Estonia and Latvia will continue taking a hard turn to racism against their very large Russian minorities. This, by the middle of the year, will break out into serious violence. Russian tanks will be on their borders and the EU will move quickly to shut them down, even as the US will attempt to sacrifice the pawns to cause a heat up of it's new Cold War. In the end, Estonia and Latvia, in 2009, will more than likely collapse into absolute anarchy and possibly failed states.
Lithuania is more stable and will take a more neutral roll. It will work closer with both Germany and Russia and will thus maintain a more stable, though still struggling economy. It will be faced, though, with a major influx of economic refugees from its two failed neighbors.
For the Balkans as general, look for war in 2009. It will start with increased violence against the EU and NATO in Kosovo from the drug cartels who run the failed statelete. With NATO on the retreat in Afghanistan, split over Russia, Serbia will finally take the move to re annex Kosovo and drive the KLA and Albanian mafia out of the region. This will be sparked by KLA Islamics starting more terror in southern Serbia and the threat against the Serb minority there.
The domino effect will be fast and furious.
Once NATO steps aside and does nothing to loose yet more troops to the Serb army, the signal will be clear. The KLA will flee into Greece, Macedonia and Albania. In Albania, they will destabilize the already weak government and the state, by the end of the year will be in the process of collapsing. Macedonia will find itself once more mired in a civil war. This time, though, a weak US will not be able to stop Macedonia’s neighbors from arming the Orthodox Christian state against the Islamic-Narco insurgency.
Greece will also find itself with an active Albanian insurgency, on a much higher level than the few violent incidents scattered so far. In the end, Greece will eject its Albanian workers and may even be drawn actively into the collapsing Albania, if for no other reason than to protect the 25% Orthodox Albanian minority.
In Bosnia, Srpska Republic, using the Kosovo standard, will declare independence and ask to return to Serbia's borders. This will of course reignite the Bosnian three way civil war, for which all three sides are ready. NATO will attempt to stop the deterioration but after several violent incidents, member nations will withdraw their troops or remask them as UN observers.
Croatia and Serbia will meet once more on the battle field of Europe as Bosnia is equally flooded by a new wave of Arab and Pakistani Jihadists.
Turkey 's economy will continue to crash as with everyone else. It's exports will not be in demand and will lead to large scale lay offs. The ever more Islamized government will finally lead to at least one military putsch to replace them with secular powers. As conditions deteriorate, the Kurds will relaunch an active insurgency, which will also strain Turkey's resources since it will need to be further interjected into Iraq's Kurdish north.
Ukraine 's economy will continue to collapse and the Western puppet Oranges will continue to bicker and feed off of the suffering of the people as they maneuver for power against each other. The crisis point will come this spring, when no obvious economic turn around will be on the horizon. Ukraine will more than likely split in two. The east/south will become a close satellite of Russia, while the west will struggle on. Whether this is peaceful or violent will depend directly on how much the West stays out of this.
Unbelievably, Saakashvili will continue to cling to power through the first half of the year. Under Washington's prodding, in early spring, he will relaunch the war and than be removed in a coup by his former allies. Moscow's response will, more than likely, be to not stop until Tbilisi. What will follow next will depend on how strong Russia feels, how weak and slow the West's response is, but annexation is not out of the question.
Israel will face a protracted series of wars on its borders, primarily in Lebanon and Egypt's Sinai and Gaza. Syria will also attempt to start one in the Golan Heights but this will pitter out. Olmert will finally be put to pastor, in a nice jail cell as he stands corruption charges. Netanyahu will more than likely be president, and being a pragmatist, he will take a much closer position to Russia, as Washington's influence falls. Russia will be pressed further to stop sales to Arabs of weapons, in exchange for Israeli loyalty and investments.
With a continued economic down turn, Iran will be rocked by riots. Whether the mullahs stay in power will be yet to be seen. The nuclear power plant will start, no one will bomb them and no nuclear weapons will be developed. The US will continue to threaten with its military but these threats will be ignored by everyone, as hollow.
Iraq will continue to grind on, from crisis to crisis, not quite in a full civil war and not nearly in any kind of peace. One or two car bombs a day will continue to be the norm. The US will start 2009 by flexing troops to Afghanistan. The drop in numbers will not last long as fighting will quickly escalate and the units will have to be returned. In other words, the American quagmire is going nowhere as is Obama's promise to remove troops in 16 months.
Turkey will be forced to intervene more actively in Kurdistan, which will bring more instability to the region.
Afghanistan will become a NATO disaster, one big enough to possibly finally split the old Cold War club. The southern supply routes will be unreliable at best, downright a disaster at worst, running through Pakistan. Many NATO nations involved will be forced to sign contracts and agreements with Russia. The US' drive to get Georgia and Ukraine into NATO will be further blocked by nations such as Germany, who has the foresight to understand it needs Russia not only for economics but also for the survival of its troops in Afghanistan.
This of course will further alienate the US puppet NATO/EU "New Europe" states such as Poland and the Baltics.
As a whole, NATO control over the southern and central portions of the country will collapse. The northern warlords will also switch their loyalty to their traditional allies: Iran, Russia and India. Afghanistan's government will control little more than the main cities and even then it will be a state of constant terror and siege.
By the middle of the year, it will be obvious the war is lost and NATO member states will start a mad scramble to get their troops out. Only the US and British will remain.
Pakistan will fall into an all out civil war, loosing control of much of the country side. The question of the safety of its nuclear weapons will be a prominent headache for the world but nothing real will be done. At least one border war will be fought with India and will be declared a draw by the weak Pakistani authorities. The economy will continue its down ward spiral and the flight of talent will only accelerate.
Militants will begin to launch brazen attacks throughout the cities and the military will be mostly in a garrison, circle the wagons mentality. Some military strikes on militants will be carried out but will not solve the problems.
Khyber Pass will be ultimately cut off by insurgents on both ends, making Afghanistan an even bigger debacle.
India will continue to suffer from business flight, as demand continues to crash. It's geographical isolation from the main centers of commerce will further hamper the situation, as fewer maritime transports are plying the sea lanes. Continued tensions with Pakistan and continued Pakistani and Maoist terrorism and violence will further damage the business environment.
Over all, India will suffer like any primarily exporter nation, but she will come through relatively sound, with fewer internal divisions than many nations. Look for a broad border war to start by late spring, with Pakistan. After initial gains, India will bog down into a prolonged series of battles. Under massive external pressure and internal pressure and the cracking of Pakistan, both sides will make peace. India will claim all out victory, though most of its objectives will not be met and Pakistan will claim victory because it averted total defeat.
China is in for an era of major instability. The 100,000+ factories that closed in 2008 will be followed by as many in 2009. The Chinese domestic consumption market is just to small to suck up more than 20% of the production it presently has. China will be further weakened by the hyper inflating dollar. Friction will come between China and America in late summer, when it will become obvious to China that the US is hyper inflating its way out of the US debt that China holds, making its investments worthless. In response, China will nationalize all US factories on the main land.
This act will at once bankrupt dozens of US companies and further crash the already chronically ill American economy and it will force a trade war on the US that may force it to bring some production back in, once the equipment can be replaced.
Either way, look for US/Chinese relations to be down right hostile by the end of 2009. Internally, China will suffer much instability and rioting, as hundreds of millions of unneeded factory workers are forced back into their dirt poor farming villages. Luckily for the Chinese authorities and no so luckily for the citizens, extreme violence is always a top option for China's authorities ad will be used often and to effect.
While Japan's export base economy will suffer for the same reason the rest of the world is suffering, Japan still retains a strong, well educated and affluent society. Along with strict cultural cohesion and a high rate of savings, Japan will maintain much of its wealth. Protectionist measures have secured most of Japan's industry inside of Japan.
This, coupled with the weak US, will prompt Japan to recreate, albeit without war this time, a new Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, drawing into it's orbit various other local nations. Through 2009 there will be polite friction, as Japan pushes US influence out of central Pacific rim and south east Asia. As the dollar falls to hyper inflation, the Yen will be seen, by the second half of 2009, as the standard barer of Asian stability and success and will come to replace the dollar as the dominant power in that portion of the world.
Japan will see Russia as, at once, both a key energy supplier and trade partner and as a competitor to Asian domination, though a minor competitor. With China ripped by strife, Japan will have a free hand in Asia.
The article has been reprinted with the kind permission from Stanislav Mishin and originally appears on his blog, Mat Rodina
In a weary world of endless US military interventions, sanctions, trade tariffs and chaos, let’s pause and take stock of the shining house on the hill