Dollar Depends on American Unemployment

Everybody knows that the dollar can rise, but everyone wants to know when it starts

Market members and specialists believe that the situation in the American economy is not very optimistic to let inconsiderable macroeconomic changes exert significant influence on the growth of the American currency. Apparently, something more serious is needed to make the dollar strengthen.

Specialists forecast the further reduction of the dollar against the background of expectations to publish the information about the unemployment level in the USA tomorrow. It is not excluded that the information will expressively prove the fact that the American economy is growing slowly. In addition to it, experts expect the increase of the American unemployment by 6.2 percent in June. This might be the maximum level since July of 1994. The number of applications for unemployment allowances reportedly exceeded 400,000 last week. If this information is confirmed, it will affect the dollar level very negatively.

Experts think, one should not expect the growth of either the American economy or the dollar, taking account of the ISM's information. The ISM's report that was published yesterday turned out to be a lot weaker than market members though it would be. A certain growth was registered, but the index remained below the psychologically critical level of 50 points. Therefore, the publication of the data struck a blow on the dollar. The market was expecting the positive information, but the reality turned out to be disappointing.

The euro went up during the first 20 minutes after the ISM's report was made public, although it slid down soon and was traded on the level of 1.1582 dollars per euro for the rest of the day. Analysts say, that fact has confirmed the market wish to make the dollar rise on the base of the idea that the American economy will start strengthening during the second half of the current year. Everybody knows that the dollar can rise, but everyone wants to have the proof that it is already happening. If the June information about the American unemployment is disappointing, nothing good is going to happen to the US dollar in the nearest future.

The situation on the world money market affects Russia as well. The dollar resumed its reduction against the Russian ruble yesterday. The Russian Central Bank set the official dollar rate on the level of 30.3267 rubles per one American dollar. Experts believe, the technical price correction that occurred at the end of the quarter is over. To all appearance, the reduction of the dollar rate was explained with the growth of export profit supplies and the euro rate strengthening on the international money market. On the other hand, it is not ruled out that a part of surplus rubles may maintain the demand on dollar at the end of the current week.