Russia raises oil export forecast to 244.7 million tons by 2026

Russia has revised its oil export forecasts upward, projecting shipments to reach 244.7 million tons by 2026. This updated macroeconomic forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development indicates a recovery in export volumes despite international pressure and existing agreements.

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Carriages with oil

The new figures, reviewed by the cabinet on September 24, show an increase of 7.5 million tons compared to previous estimates for 2026. For context, the ministry expects 230.8 million tons in 2025. Macroeconomist Artem Loginov told Pravda. Ru that this upward revision suggests infrastructure constraints are easing and discounts on Russian grades have stabilized, allowing companies to plan shipments more accurately.

The shift in volume is closely tied to the redirection of flows toward India and China and the expansion of port capacities in the East.

Production and Refining Balance

While export projections have risen, oil production forecasts remain conservative. Production (including gas condensate) is expected to hit 511 million tons in 2026, nearly identical to the 2025 forecast of 511.4 million tons, but lower than the 516 million tons recorded in 2024.

Market analyst Gennady Chernov noted to Pravda. Ru that a redistribution of flows is occurring: raw exports are increasing while production stays flat. He attributed this to refinery maintenance schedules and the high profitability of raw crude sales at current prices. To prevent domestic fuel shortages, the government may need to adjust Ministry of Finance mechanisms regarding damper payments and export duties.

Long-term Outlook (2027-2029)

The forecast for the latter half of the decade shows a decline in exports following the 2026 peak. Shipments are projected to drop to 232.5 million tons in 2027 and further to 216.6 million tons by 2028. Conversely, total production is expected to climb to 525 million tons by 2029.

Financial analyst Nikita Volkov explained to Pravda. Ru that the widening gap between production and exports signals a strategic shift toward deep domestic processing. The goal is to prioritize the export of high-value-added refined products over raw crude.

Risk Factors

Despite the optimistic forecast, several risks remain. A global recession could dampen demand in Asia, and further sanctions targeting the tanker fleet could disrupt the logistics required to meet these targets.