Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Collapse by Nearly 40% in Early 2026

Russia's oil and gas revenues fell sharply in January-April 2026, according to data released by the Russian Finance Ministry.

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Compared with the same period last year, revenues from oil and gas exports dropped by more than one-third — down 38.3% to 2.298 trillion rubles. The ministry attributed the decline primarily to lower global oil prices. At the same time, non-oil-and-gas revenues increased by 10.2% to 9.423 trillion rubles.

The Finance Ministry expects the federal budget to receive 8.919 trillion rubles in oil-and-gas revenues and 31.365 trillion rubles in non-energy revenues over the course of 2026.

The ministry also announced that beginning in May it plans to resume operations involving the purchase and sale of foreign currency and gold on the domestic market under the budget rule mechanism.

"The accumulation of additional oil-and-gas revenues during favorable price conditions and the use of National Welfare Fund resources to cover shortfalls ensure the stability of the budget system amid fluctuations,” the ministry stated.

Budget Deficit More Than Doubles

Russia's federal budget deficit for January-April 2026 reached 5.877 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP. This is nearly double the level recorded during the same period in 2025, increasing by 2.946 trillion rubles year-on-year.

The current budget law projects a full-year deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP.

The Finance Ministry said the elevated deficit at the beginning of the year was mainly caused by accelerated government spending and advance financing of contracts.

Oil Revenues Fall Below Baseline Level

According to preliminary estimates, total federal budget revenues in January-April 2026 amounted to 11.7 trillion rubles, down 4.5% from the same period last year.

Oil-and-gas revenues fell to 2.3 trillion rubles, below the baseline level of 2.8 trillion rubles calculated using a benchmark Urals oil price of $59 per barrel.

The ministry said the decline occurred "primarily due to lower oil prices in previous periods.”

Meanwhile, non-oil-and-gas revenues continued to grow steadily. Revenues from turnover taxes, including VAT, increased by 17.2% during the first four months of the year. VAT collections alone rose by 20.2% to 5.3 trillion rubles.

Government Spending Continues to Rise

Federal budget expenditures in January-April totaled 17.5 trillion rubles, up 15.7% year-on-year.

The Finance Ministry explained that the accelerated pace of spending was linked to rapid contract execution and advance payments on certain government obligations.

Overall, the ministry maintains that the current dynamics of revenues and expenditures indicate that the budget is being executed "in accordance with the target parameters of the structural deficit.”

For the full year 2026, Russia plans federal budget revenues of 40.283 trillion rubles and expenditures of 44.07 trillion rubles.

Economists Warn About Weak Oil Income

Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously stated that April's oil-and-gas revenues were significantly worse than analysts had expected.

According to him, additional revenues above the baseline level amounted to only 21 billion rubles — roughly ten times lower than forecasts of 200-250 billion rubles.

Polevoy suggested the discrepancy may have been caused either by inaccurate forecasts for previous months or by changes in the methodology used for compensatory payments under the fuel damping mechanism.

Based on calculations by RBC, April 2026 alone produced a monthly budget deficit of approximately 1.3 trillion rubles. Revenues totaled 3.4 trillion rubles, including 855 billion rubles from oil and gas and 2.55 trillion rubles from non-energy sources. Expenditures reached 4.7 trillion rubles.