Russian government forecasts world economy growth - 10 October, 2002

In 2002, the growth of the world economy will be 2.3 percent, the forecast of the social and economic development of Russia till 2005, prepared by the Russian government, says. At the same time, the maximum growth rate is expected in 2004. It is forecasted at 4 percent, while in the further years it will be lower - 3.5 to 3.8 percent. If the world economy develops less successfully and is weakened by a number of negative factors, the average annual growth rate would be 3 percent. A considerable growth rate of the world economy can be provided only if mature economies, the USA first of all, grow.

According to forecasts, the growth of the US GDP will be 2.2 percent in 2002. In 2003-2004, the growth of the US GDP is expected to be 6 percent with a further decline to 5 percent. In Japan, the GDP dynamics will be positive only in 2003. The Japanese economy's escaping recession is testified to by a downtrend of unemployment. In 2002, a decrease in the real GDP is expected to 0.5 percent, while in the next years it is to go up to 1.5 to 2 percent. In the EU, the dynamics of overcoming the recession is not as intensive as in the US. This particularly concerns Germany. The total deficit of euro countries' budgets has remained considerable. The major growth factor will be a stable consumer demand and an increase in investments. Among negative trends, one could point to the continuing import growth and an increase in unemployment. In 2002, the GDP growth in the euro zone will be 1.1 percent, in 2003-2004 - 2.8 percent.