It may sound strange, but Stockholm and Helsinki's decision to establish joint mechanisms to defend against drone attacks leads to a rather simple conclusion. And who is flying into Finland these days, if not Ukrainian drones? So are Sweden and Finland creating a small military alliance against Ukraine?
Hardly, of course, would the Finns accept such a tongue-in-cheek line of reasoning. The hint contained in this chain of logic is far from obvious to Finns when they have Russia, a country that has openly declared them an enemy, right on their doorstep.
Otherwise, the Baltic states could also be added to the equation. After all, Ukrainian drones fly into Finland through their territory. So Finland would need to build defenses against the Baltic states as well. And what about NATO's Article 5 in the context of Ukrainian UAVs entering Finnish territory? The whole thing starts to look rather absurd.
This is simply another example of the theater of the absurd being played out on the European stage. But since all these slightly unhinged actors could inadvertently jump off the stage and charge straight into the audience, it is sometimes necessary to raise the lorgnette and take a closer look at what is actually happening.
They are, of course, free to go mad in their own way, but everything should have reasonable limits. Russia cannot ignore the very fact that military cooperation between Sweden and Finland is growing. This directly concerns the security of Russia's northwestern regions.
What do we have, then?
Sweden and Finland have reached a joint decision on protection against drones. Two incidents are cited as justification:
- On March 29, two unmanned aerial vehicles crossed the coastline in southeastern Finland. Two Finnish F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets were scrambled to intercept them. After flying approximately 40 kilometers into Finnish territory, the drones crashed on their own, leaving Finnish pilots with no chance to distinguish themselves;
- On May 15, the Finns considered the incident more serious. Drones again appeared over the Gulf of Finland, but this time they were reportedly carrying a much larger warhead. Changes had to be made to both air and maritime traffic. Once again, the Finns were lucky: the UAVs fell somewhere into the sea.
But did they actually fall? That is not certain. It is entirely possible that Ukraine was simply testing Finland's detection and warning systems in this way. Once Kyiv saw that the provocation would not go unnoticed, it backed off.
Against the backdrop of the "growing drone threat,” the Finns immediately found a reason to spend not only additional money from their own budget but also to ask the European Union for funding. As a result, €50 million of Finnish money has been allocated to create a system for detecting and countering drones, while another €35 million has been secured from Brussels to develop the project.
Interestingly, the Ukrainian drones entered through the maritime border, while most of the investment in the new system is planned for the border with Russia.
The same pattern can be seen in Sweden's decision to make its JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets available to Finland. This was not an initiative from Stockholm, however, but a request from Helsinki, and the legal framework for such a move had already been established before both countries joined NATO.
In 2020, Norway, Sweden and Finland concluded an agreement on military cooperation. At the same time, Stockholm amended its domestic legislation to allow the Swedish armed forces to operate on Finnish territory. It is noteworthy that when commenting on the agreement at the time, Sweden's then-defense minister, Peter Hultqvist, categorically rejected the idea of joining NATO.
In 2022, Finland and Sweden signed a bilateral agreement governing the activities of one country's armed forces on the territory of the other during peacetime, in the pre-crisis period and in wartime.
The current military rapprochement between Sweden and Finland will not be limited to the Gripens alone. From Russia's security perspective, however, this factor is particularly troubling. The aircraft can also carry offensive weapons. Just the day before, reports emerged of a German Taurus cruise missile being tested from a Gripen.
Sweden to test air-defense systems on Finnish soil
In addition to aviation, Sweden will also test its air-defense systems on Finnish territory, including the Loke system.
The system consists of a compact Giraffe radar that can be mounted in the bed of a pickup truck, along with a range of small arms of various calibers known as TrackFire. The combat module can simultaneously carry two 7.62 mm and 12.7 mm machine guns, as well as an automatic 40 mm grenade launcher. The installation is mounted on a truck chassis.
This system already exists. The Swedes boast that it was developed in a record 84 days, by March 2025. In essence, however, the system is a compilation and integration of existing components adapted to the requirements of new tasks.
Looking ahead, the Swedes plan to develop something new for Finland: the Gute II system. It is essentially the same Loke system, but with two additional components:
- Tridon Mk2 - a truck-mounted 40 mm anti-aircraft gun using programmable ammunition with a proximity fuse;
- an electronic warfare system.
The system is scheduled to enter Swedish army service next year.
From there, deeper integration of Finnish and Swedish surveillance, reconnaissance and combat-control systems appears to be the logical next step, and that should be a warning sign for Russia. It is one thing to assess the balance of forces in this direction while taking Finland alone into account. It is quite another to understand that the balance could be disrupted at any moment by Swedish intervention.
In practical terms, Finland should now be viewed as an extension of Sweden in every sense. The growing closeness between the two countries can quite reasonably be regarded as a military alliance, perhaps even one that is closer and more binding for its participants than NATO. Just as Finland was once Swedish territory in the pre-Petrine era, history now appears to be coming full circle.
Meanwhile, Finnish President Alexander Stubb is once again calling for dialogue with Russia. Oh, that Stubb — how changeable he is. Perhaps he has taken Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev's criticism to heart. Yes, sharp words can sometimes work wonders. It seems Russia should "speak its mind” more often.
