War and Profit: The Biggest Financial Winners of US-Iran Conflict

As part of our continuing series, Geopolitics Made Simple, devoted to developments in the Middle East, we have already discussed the military power of the United States, Iran's response, the objectives of the war and the way domestic politics influences decisions made by the White House.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by El Rolo Ueeqee, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

A bag of US dollars

But it is impossible to discuss war without discussing money: the enormous sums governments spend on missiles, aircraft, fuel and military operations, and the money that someone else earns from the very same war.

War is not only about politics and the military. It is also a vast economy in which the expenses of some inevitably become the income of others. This leads to the next simple question in our series: who emerged among the main beneficiaries of the war with Iran, and how much money did they manage to make from it?

When discussing the many-month war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran, it would therefore be wrong to count only those who lost or won on the battlefield. There have been surprisingly many beneficiaries of the "victory.” At different stages of the crisis, American and Russian oil producers, Norway, weapons manufacturers, gas exporters and financial institutions all gained advantages. China, perhaps, received less of a direct financial benefit and more of a political and strategic one.

But there is little point in discussing everyone at once. So let us examine them one by one, beginning with the United States.

Here, however, a paradox immediately emerges. America as a state spent enormous sums on the war. But that does not mean American business lost money because of it. Quite the opposite.

To Make Money, You First Have to Spend It: $67 Billion

On June 24, 2026, the administration of Donald Trump sent Congress an official request for an additional $87.6 billion in funding. The White House stated directly that most of this money was needed in connection with Operation Epic Fury, the war against Iran.

Of the total amount, $67.146 billion was allocated to the U.S. Department of War. The breakdown itself is rather revealing: $17.3 billion for operational expenses, $1.7 billion for maintaining combat readiness, $1.5 billion for additional fuel, $2.4 billion for drones and $5.1 billion for cybersecurity and autonomous systems.

Another $21 billion was allocated for the procurement of munitions. And this is where things become particularly interesting. For the taxpayer, a missile launched at Iran represents an expense. For the company that receives a government contract to manufacture a replacement, it represents future revenue.

War is war, but the production plan still has to be fulfilled.

Missiles Running Out? No Problem — Order New Ones

On August 17, the U.S. Navy officially announced a $22.9 billion contract with Raytheon, a division of RTX Corporation, for the production of Tomahawk cruise missiles. This was not an estimate by journalists or a stock market forecast. The figure came directly from the U.S. Navy.

The wording was equally revealing: the contract was intended to accelerate the production of one of America's key long-range weapons.

In other words, several months of war do not merely consume missiles that have already been produced. They create a guaranteed market for the next generation of missiles. RTX's financial statements clearly demonstrate what this process looks like in numbers.

In the second quarter of 2026, RTX sales reached $24.7 billion, up 14 percent from the previous year. The corporation's defense backlog reached $119 billion.

But the Raytheon division itself provides an even more interesting picture. Its quarterly sales increased by 18 percent, from $7.001 billion to $8.269 billion, while operating profit rose by 29 percent, from $805 million to $1.042 billion.

The company openly explained where the growth came from: increased volumes in the Patriot, Standard Missile and AMRAAM programs, as well as other air and missile defense systems.

No conspiracy theory is required. More missiles are fired, so more missiles are produced. More missiles are produced, so the government buys more. The government buys more, and sales and profits rise.

That is how the economics of war works.

Lockheed Martin Was Not Left Behind

The picture is even more interesting at another American defense giant, Lockheed Martin. By the end of June, the company's total backlog of future orders stood at $230.4 billion, compared with $193.6 billion at the end of 2025.

The backlog at its Missiles and Fire Control division increased from $46.65 billion to $87.88 billion in just six months. Sales at the division rose by 19 percent in the second quarter, reaching $4.101 billion, while operating profit increased by 24 percent to $594 million.

Lockheed itself attributed the growth primarily to expanded production of PAC-3 and THAAD systems, as well as the Precision Strike Missile.

Of course, it would be wrong to attribute all of this growth exclusively to the war with Iran. These companies had contracts before the conflict, there is also Ukraine, Asian programs, orders from allies and accumulated global demand.

But war has an unpleasant characteristic: a missile that was sitting in a warehouse yesterday may have been launched today, and tomorrow it has to be replaced.

At that point, a military operation turns into a long-term government procurement program.

Oil: Sometimes It Is Enough Simply to Be Far From Hormuz

Missiles, however, are only half of the American story. The second obvious winner was the oil industry. Consider not politicians' statements but Chevron's report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

In the second quarter of 2025, the company earned $2.49 billion. In the second quarter of 2026, that figure reached $12.072 billion — almost a fivefold increase.

Profit from its upstream operations, meaning oil and gas production, rose from $2.727 billion to $8.182 billion. Downstream operations — refining and sales — generated $4.868 billion, compared with only $737 million a year earlier.

The reason appears just a few lines later in the same document. The average price of Brent crude in the second quarter of 2025 stood at $68 per barrel. In the second quarter of 2026, it had already reached $104.

The economics here becomes very simple. If you have oil and can continue producing it without interruption while tankers somewhere far away can no longer pass normally through the Strait of Hormuz, your oil simply becomes more valuable.

Chevron simultaneously reported record U.S. production of almost 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The result is a remarkable coincidence: a global energy crisis, oil above $100 per barrel, problems affecting competing suppliers — and record American production.

For the global economy, it is a crisis. For an oil company's accountants, it can be a very successful quarter.

ExxonMobil: Another $14.5 Billion in Profit

ExxonMobil's results were no less impressive. According to the company's own official report, ExxonMobil recorded $14.5 billion in net profit in the second quarter of 2026, while adjusted earnings reached $14.7 billion. Operating cash flow stood at $23.6 billion, while free cash flow reached $17.2 billion.

During a single quarter, the company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders: $4.3 billion in dividends and another $5.1 billion through share buybacks.

Against the backdrop of war, the picture looks almost philosophical. Someone in the Persian Gulf is counting missiles. Someone in Europe is calculating the cost of gasoline and natural gas. And someone in Texas is counting dividends.

If people once said, "War or no war, dinner is served on schedule,” the Americans appear to have rephrased it: "War or no war, the quarterly report arrives on schedule — and so do the dividends.”

Gas: When Europe and Asia Become Afraid at the Same Time

There is another American winner: producers of liquefied natural gas. Cheniere Energy is the largest producer and exporter of LNG in the United States.

In the second quarter of 2026, its revenue reached $5.73 billion, an increase of 24 percent compared with the same period in 2025. Net profit rose from $1.626 billion to $3.068 billion — an increase of 89 percent.

The number of LNG cargoes exported increased from 154 to 184, or 19 percent. The company subsequently raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for the whole of 2026 to between $7.9 billion and $8.4 billion.

The American advantage here is particularly interesting because Europe, after restrictions on Middle Eastern supplies, has been forced to compete with Asia for alternative gas.

The market operates very simply. A shortage drives prices higher. When one buyer is willing to pay more, the tanker sails in that direction.

Geopolitical friendship, allied commitments and statements about transatlantic solidarity may continue to exist somewhere in the background. But contracts are still signed in dollars. And American gas sailed not to NATO allies, but to generous buyers in Asia.

And Now the President Himself

At this point, a highly delicate subject arises. It should not be claimed that Donald Trump personally made money from the war with Iran. There is currently no evidence of that.

But it is equally impossible to ignore his unique financial situation.

On June 30, the U.S. Office of Government Ethics published the president's annual financial disclosure: 927 pages covering assets, companies, accounts and transactions.

Importantly, this was a declaration for 2025, covering the period before the current war began. It would therefore be wrong to use it as evidence that Trump earned money specifically from the hostilities. At least for now.

But the document demonstrates the scale of the sitting president's business interests. For example, CIC Digital, connected to Trump's NFTs and meme coins, reported $635,068,835 in royalties under a licensing agreement with Celebration Coins.

In 2025, the Trump-linked company DT Marks DeFi LLC received $236.25 million in net proceeds from the sale of World Liberty Financial tokens, as well as another $65.625 million from the sale of part of its stake in WLF Holdco LLC.

World Liberty income was also distributed in various forms: approximately $150.6 million in Ethereum, $56 million in USDC, $42.25 million in U.S. dollars and $33.46 million in Bitcoin. There were also smaller proceeds in other cryptocurrencies and approximately $1.82 million in Ethereum staking income.

Another major source of income was linked to a separate Donald Trump entity, DT Marks SC LLC. According to the president's financial disclosure, the company received approximately $196.9 million in net proceeds in 2025 connected with attracting new investors to Stablecoin Holdco and the sale of Class C interests.

That means this activity alone involved almost $200 million, further demonstrating the scale of the Trump family's financial involvement in the cryptocurrency business.

In other words, the United States has a president who simultaneously governs the world's largest military and economic power while remaining the beneficiary of an extremely large family business structure.

This alone is not a crime. But the story becomes even more unusual from here.

The President's Words Also Became a Product

On July 16, Trump Media & Technology Group officially announced the launch of a new service called Truth API.

The company's description requires little additional comment. It is a specialized information channel for financial institutions, algorithmic traders and high-frequency traders that allows them to receive posts from the most influential Truth Social accounts in machine-readable form within milliseconds.

Trump Media's management itself formulated the central commercial argument: markets already react to messages published on Truth Social. The service began operating on August 1.

This creates a highly unusual structure. The president of the United States makes a decision capable of changing the global price of oil. The president announces that decision through his own social media platform.

And a company controlled by a trust whose sole beneficiary is the president himself sells professional financial market participants the ability to receive those messages as quickly as possible.

According to SEC filings, Donald Trump's trust owned 114.75 million Trump Media shares, representing approximately 41.1 percent of the company's voting shares at the beginning of 2026. Trump himself is the sole beneficiary of the trust, while Donald Trump Jr. serves as its trustee.

Trump Media officially describes Truth API as a new source of long-term recurring revenue.

In other words, even a presidential statement can now be turned into a business product. Capitalism is an extraordinarily inventive system — especially American capitalism.

The Main Thing Is to Press the Button Before Everyone Else

This brings us to the most intriguing part of the story.

On March 23, shortly before Trump's statement about a possible de-escalation and the postponement of a strike against Iranian energy infrastructure, a position worth approximately $500 million appeared in the oil market that was betting on falling prices.

The president then made his statement — and oil prices did indeed fall.

On April 7, the situation was repeated. Several hours before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, traders placed approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices. After the president's statement, Brent crude fell by approximately 15 percent.

This is not journalistic speculation. On April 9, two U.S. senators officially appealed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, demanding an investigation into the transactions and asking the regulator to determine whether anyone had used non-public government information.

The figures of $500 million and $950 million were stated in the senators' letter.

On April 15, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the investigation, that the CFTC was indeed examining a series of such transactions involving oil futures.

Here, however, a very clear line must be drawn. There is currently no evidence that Donald Trump, his relatives or anyone in his administration carried out these transactions.

Not yet.

We do not know exactly who made the money. But we do know something else. Someone placed enormous positions immediately before presidential statements that subsequently caused sharp movements in the oil market.

America's financial regulator became interested in these coincidences.

That alone makes for a fascinating story. Modern warfare is no longer fought only with missiles.

Sometimes, making money requires something much simpler: knowing a few minutes before everyone else whether the missile will be launched — or whether the president has changed his mind.

And only those closest to the decision-makers may possess such knowledge. Or do you believe that artificial intelligence and stock market speculators can independently calculate the exact moment when Trump will press the button?

So Did America Make Money From the War?

Yes and no.

The American state paid enormous sums for the war. The Pentagon's additional funding request alone amounted to $67.1 billion, including $21 billion for the purchase of new munitions.

But government spending did not simply disappear. It became someone else's income.

It became new contracts for Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. It became billions in profits for Chevron and ExxonMobil. It became rising revenue for American LNG exporters. It became orders to manufacture new missiles to replace those already used.

And finally, it became enormous financial volatility — an environment in which anyone capable of correctly predicting the president's next statement can make a fortune.

War therefore has a rather strange accounting system.

One column contains the dead, the destruction, government spending and economic losses.

But on the next page of the very same global balance sheet are new contracts, record profits, dividends and order backlogs worth tens of billions of dollars.

While diplomats decide who should reopen the Strait of Hormuz, military officials count the missiles that remain, and politicians argue about victory and defeat, the accountants of major corporations continue doing their jobs.

War is war.

But profit arrives on schedule.

America, however, is only the first beneficiary in this story.

The story is about to become even more interesting.