Cuba's Socialist Model Faces Transformation as Reforms Resemble New NEP

Cuba is entering a phase of radical transformation of its economic model amid increasing external pressure, according to Russian historian, politician, Secretary of the United Communist Party (OKP), and chair of the New Labor trade union, Darya Mitina. In comments to Pravda.Ru, she said Havana has effectively launched an economic policy comparable to the Soviet-era New Economic Policy (NEP) in an effort to preserve its socialist system under conditions of prolonged isolation.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Хорхе Ройан, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Cuban flags

Earlier reports claimed that the United States had set the objective of achieving political change in Havana by the end of 2026. Against the backdrop of Cuba's deepest economic crisis in three decades, Washington continues to tighten its trade embargo and financial restrictions. According to foreign media reports cited in the original article, the Pentagon has spent several months concentrating forces that could be used in the event of military intervention. In response, Cuban authorities have called for an extraordinary session of the United Nations General Assembly to draw international attention to what they describe as the island's long-standing economic blockade.

Negotiations Continue Alongside Economic Reforms

According to Mitina, the United States has not yet settled on a final strategy toward Cuba, with scenarios ranging from direct military intervention to attempts to influence the country's political leadership through informal contacts. She noted that Havana maintains that any meaningful progress in bilateral dialogue is only possible after sanctions begin to be lifted, while the Pentagon continues to examine military contingency plans.

"Negotiations have been underway for a long time. Cuba does not conceal them and regularly publishes their results. On the Cuban side, the negotiating group includes Raul Rodriguez Castro, grandson of Fidel Castro, the former leader of Cuba and the Cuban Revolution. On the American side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his staff are participating. The talks are progressing slowly, and there is no reason for excessive optimism. The United States held a similar process with Iran, and we know how that ended. Negotiations and military preparations are separate matters. At the same time, the Ninth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba is taking place, where economic liberalization is being proclaimed," she said.

Economic Liberalization Without Abandoning Socialism

Mitina pointed to decisions adopted during the Ninth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, which approved a package of 176 emergency economic measures. According to the original article, these include lifting price controls, allowing private businesses to engage directly in exports and imports, and permitting private companies to employ more than 100 workers.

Some analysts believe these reforms introduce elements of capitalism despite the country's socialist framework. Mitina argued, however, that Havana is not repeating the Soviet perestroika experience that preceded the collapse of the USSR but is instead pursuing a tactical retreat designed to preserve the existing political system.

"It is more appropriate to describe this as a new economic policy, already in its third phase, because over the past 25 years Cuba has twice liberalized its economy and legalized private enterprise. There is a list of professions, industries, and occupations where private entrepreneurship is permitted, and that list continues to expand, covering dozens of sectors. This does not mean wholesale privatization of state property. Rather, it means allowing private initiative so that people can earn income and conduct financial transactions," Mitina explained.

Internal Debate Over the Direction of Reform

Mitina said the Cuban leadership has demonstrated unity both publicly and internally while attempting to reassure those who view any reform or concession as a betrayal of socialist principles. She cited an interview given by Fidel Castro's grandson, Raul Castro, which prompted mixed reactions, with some interpreting it as a tactical move and others viewing it as a step toward capitulation. In her assessment, such concerns are unfounded.

According to the historian, the interview was intended to send a message to three audiences simultaneously: the Cuban public, the country's political leadership, and American businesses interested in certain sectors of the Cuban economy.

"Reducing everything to a binary argument about whether these are socialist or capitalist reforms is an oversimplification. This is not about capitalist concessions but about changing the model of socialism, and the comparison with the New Economic Policy is appropriate. As with the original NEP, external factors played a role, but domestic realities were decisive. After 65 years of blockade, sanctions, and the deliberate destruction of key industries, it would have been difficult to expect the economy to remain unchanged. As for negotiations with Washington, they have not yet produced concrete results. At this stage, they are only preliminary," she added.

Uncertain Future

The situation is further complicated by claims that Moscow has distanced itself from fulfilling some of its allied commitments to Havana, while the United States continues to consider various policy options toward Cuba.

"Cuba is undertaking reforms under massive pressure from the United States because of the blockade, the energy crisis, and food shortages. In that sense, these changes are being imposed by circumstances, and the Cuban leadership does not hide that fact. Which path Cuba ultimately chooses remains uncertain, and much will depend on external factors. Discussions about the country's future have now begun within the leadership of the Communist Party," Mitina said.

Analysts continue to assess how effectively Cuba will be able to withstand external pressure if tensions escalate further. Mitina concluded that the ultimate outcome of the reforms will depend on how they are implemented in practice and whether Havana succeeds in maintaining what it considers its fundamental principles while continuing dialogue with Washington.