Independent China expert Bronislav Vinogrodsky, in an interview with Pravda.Ru, spoke about Donald Trump's visit to China, Beijing's relations with Russia and the United States, the situation surrounding Iran and Taiwan. He also tried to explain why the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing will continue to deepen despite Western pressure.
Trump's Visit to China and Iran Issue
Q: Donald Trump's visit to China is now at the center of attention. Western media reports say Iran was the main topic of the negotiations. What do you think?
A: Right now, two major processes dominate the planet: Iran versus the United States and Israel, and Ukraine. So Iran will undoubtedly be the hotter and more important topic. China, as a global power, cannot stay outside discussions on this issue.
Q: What does Trump want from China?
A: He does not want China to interfere. He does not want China to support Iran. China, in turn, says that it is not interfering anyway. And if it escorts ships through the Strait of Hormuz, it does so solely in its own interests. We should not expect China to openly declare that "the United States is wrong and Iran is right.”
China is incredibly diplomatic and strategic. If it points somewhere, you should not look where the finger points, but where the direction itself leads.
China, Russia, and Beijing's Interests
Q: And where does the "Iran direction” lead for China?
A: Toward supporting Russia and protecting China's own interests. Russia is China's closest neighbor, and the Chinese have a saying: "A close neighbor is dearer than a distant relative.”
Russia supports Iran, and these are parallel structures: Russia and Ukraine on one side, Iran and Israel together with the United States on the other. China wants Russia to remain strong. That is why it certainly does not support the United States.
Q: Is China helping Iran in practical terms?
A: Obviously, some form of assistance exists, but nobody can speak about it directly. Everything happens discreetly. No one will openly supply weapons and publicly announce it.
In the same way, China officially avoids taking sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Formally, it supplies nothing to anyone, although everyone understands how the situation actually works.
The Decline of Europe and Russia's Pivot to the East
Q: How important are integration projects involving China, Iran, and Russia, such as the North-South transport corridor?
A: We are witnessing the decline of Europe and, after it, the United States. They still move forward on inertia, but it is already clear that much is deteriorating. The ideology itself has died. The United States has shown itself to be deceitful and morally corrupt in many ways. Hollywood still preserves some influence, but trust is gone. Everyone understands that the United States and Europe can betray their partners at any moment.
China, meanwhile, has not betrayed anyone. It is a powerful partner. Russia also behaves consistently. Much of this stems from the fact that Russia has begun freeing itself from dependence on Europe. For centuries, we lived under overwhelming European and Euro-American ideological influence. Now Russia is going through a difficult but important process of liberation from that dependence.
China also once stood on the brink of losing its independence. In the first half of the twentieth century, it was effectively semi-colonized. Britain, Europe, and the United States all tried to gain control over it. China therefore understands perfectly well the price of Western influence and does not support it.
Putin's Visit and the Strategic Alliance With China
Q: Vladimir Putin will travel to China immediately after Trump. He has already hinted at major agreements. What could they involve?
A: Most likely, we are talking about new long-term strategic agreements between Russia and China across a wide range of sectors. Possibly new energy projects such as Power of Siberia 2.
We can already see Russia-China cooperation expanding against the backdrop of sanctions and attempts to strangle Russia economically. A visa-free regime has appeared, people-to-people exchanges have increased, and all of this is genuinely working.
Russia has turned toward the East more than once because the country spent a long time wavering between East and West. Of course, some forces suggest Russia should distance itself from China. Incidentally, that is one of Trump's ideas: let us manage the world together against China. But Vladimir Putin, in my opinion, does not tolerate betrayal. He will hold firmly to relations with China. The United States and Europe have betrayed others before, continue to do so, and will keep doing so — they lack moral principles in this matter.
Taiwan as a Tool of Pressure
Q: Taiwan is also described as one of the key topics of negotiations. Are any concessions possible here?
A: Nothing fundamental will change. U.S. support for Taiwan serves as a strategic tool for pressuring China. Beijing has to spend enormous resources on this issue. The same happened with Xinjiang and Tibet — attempts to destabilize China from within. China fully understands how the United States operates. Perhaps both sides will exchange polite words, but in essence everything will remain the same.
Q: So China will not make serious economic concessions over Taiwan?
A: No, it will not.
How Chinese Political Culture Works
Q: When people look at Xi Jinping, they often sense complete emotional impenetrability. What kind of person is he?
A: For Chinese leadership, this is entirely normal. They do not display emotions publicly. It is an ancient philosophical tradition. At home they may be open people, but public politics is a completely different story. The leader of a great power must maintain status.
Q: Does he change in personal communication?
A: I have never spoken with him personally, so I cannot say.
Can China Be Destabilized?
Q: Is it possible to trigger an internal revolution in China today?
A: China has gone through such periods before. For nearly thirty years, the country existed in chaos and turmoil. The communists came and restored order. The issue was not ideology. They literally pulled China off opium and stabilized the country. Yes, there were difficult and controversial experiments — the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward — but in the end China has moved steadily for forty years and delivered unique development results.
All of this happened against the backdrop of constant attempts to prevent China's rise. The United States genuinely helped China with technology and investment because it benefited from moving production there. But the real question is who ultimately outplayed whom. Today China is independent from both the United States and Russia.
Corruption and Purges in the Chinese Military
Q: What do the purges in the Chinese military signify?
A: There is a lot of money now, and people steal. Corruption scandals periodically emerge in the military: bribes, abuses of power. China became wealthier and accumulated serious resources, so the purges have also become larger in scale.
Q: So this is more about corruption than politics?
A: Corruption is always tied to politics. The moment a person starts stealing and taking bribes, that person automatically enters into conflict with the central authorities.
How Trump's Visit Will End
Q: How do you see the outcome of Trump's visit? Is any breakthrough possible?
A: No. They will talk and part ways. There will be no breakthrough.
Q: Then why does China need this meeting?
A: China simply maintains relations. Trump tries to act aggressively, but many things do not work out for him. China's position appears far more stable.
I do not believe Trump's visit will produce serious results. But after Vladimir Putin's visit, I think genuine breakthroughs and new agreements are entirely possible.
