Freedom of Seas Is Over: How Iran Changed Global Trade Rules Overnight

Special correspondent of Pravda.Ru Daria Aslamova interviewed Doctor of Economics, Professor Andrey Kolganov about how Iran seized the valve of global trade, why freedom of the seas no longer exists, what lessons the Black Sea teaches us, and why wars are still being fought under outdated rules.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

The Strait of Hormuz and the Musandam Peninsula

How Iran Became the Main Overseer of the Strait of Hormuz

Q: The war with Iran continues for two months now. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. But it will reopen already on Iran's terms. Analysts estimate that transit fees through the strait could bring Iran about $100 billion a year. Are we witnessing an extraordinary geopolitical event?

A: The situation is indeed quite unexpected. When analysts considered the possible economic consequences of a clash between the US-Israel coalition and Iran, the option of blocking the Strait of Hormuz was discussed — but it was assumed to be temporary during the conflict. The conflict would end, and everything would return to normal. Now the situation has turned in a different direction. Iran claims it will now control the Strait of Hormuz, jointly with Oman, which lies on the opposite side. In fact, this resembles the Suez Canal model. Egypt charges for passage through Suez, Panama charges for the Panama Canal, and now Iran together with Oman will charge for Hormuz. In their hands is the valve regulating a significant portion of international trade.

Q: So the principle of free trade and free seas is becoming a thing of the past?

A: Yes. The principle of free trade is becoming a thing of the past. It will no longer exist. Perhaps someday in the distant future it may return — but for now, it is gone.

A Trigger for a Depression That Was Already Approaching

Q: Tucker Carlson said we are heading toward global depression and famine. What awaits us?

A: This is possible. The probability is very high. Not because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — that in itself will end sooner or later. Iran will not impose prohibitive tariffs, otherwise no one will use the route. Fees will be charged, prices will rise — but the problem is deeper. The global economy was already on the brink of depression even without the Hormuz conflict. What is happening now with logistics may become the trigger that turns this into a deep downturn. That is the main issue. And it concerns absolutely everyone — including us.

Q: Us as well? Media often suggest that higher oil prices mean profit for us.

A: In the short term, yes — prices rise, we sell oil at higher prices, and that brings additional revenue. The question is how long this will last. I do not think long. It will take months to restore physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz and rebuild damaged production capacities in the Persian Gulf. But if this leads to a global economic crisis, oil prices will inevitably fall. If production declines, oil simply is not needed in previous volumes. That is not a positive outcome for us.

Q: At least food and heating are secure?

A: Yes, absolutely. Energy and food security are stable. We produce fertilizers — not the entire range, but the main ones. We produce fuel. Basic needs can be met. But there will be problems with budget revenues if energy prices fall. And there will be issues with the cost of imported goods.

Q: How dependent are we on imports?

A: For high-tech products — very strongly. Import substitution effectively began only in 2020, despite discussions since 2014. Five years is not enough to fundamentally change the situation. There are many dependencies. China covers a significant portion, but economically dependence on China is no better than dependence on Europe. We have simply replaced one dependency with another. China effectively acts as a monopolist in supplying high-tech goods — and we have to work on its terms.

We Forgot Lebanon — the Switzerland of the Middle East

Q: We do not even know what is happening in Dubai. The UAE blocked information, people are jailed for filming explosions. A logistics hub built over decades collapsed instantly. The war with Iran showed: without military backing, any hub is fragile.

A: We somehow forgot Lebanon, once called the Switzerland of the Middle East. Look what happened there. The same pattern is unfolding. Now countries in Southeast Asia are trying to take over functions once performed by the Emirates. Singapore and Thailand are entering the game. So far, no one plans to attack them — but tensions are growing nearby, around Taiwan.

Q: The main question for any hub now is security. Who protects it?

A: I recall an article by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman from the 1990s. He wrote that the invisible hand of the market does not work without the visible hand — the US Air Force and Marine Corps. Now the question is: who will become the new protector of global hubs? China cannot and does not want to — it faces risks around Taiwan. Russia can defend its territory, but not global communications. The US is in internal turbulence. Africa has its own conflicts. Where a true economic safe haven might emerge — I cannot even imagine.

The World Has Already Fragmented

Q: We are already living in a fragmented world.

A: Exactly. Iran has shown that the world is divided. The situation is extremely unstable and will remain so in the medium term. This threatens serious economic consequences. The world of the past 20-30 years no longer exists. We are entering a new era. And during this transition, one recalls the old Chinese curse: may you not live in times of great change.

Q: Even this truce — we do not know whether it is real or a bluff.

A: The conflict can reignite at any moment. Iran's conditions are unacceptable for Israel and the US — effectively terms of capitulation.

Q: Who would have thought five weeks ago that a sanctioned regional power could dictate such terms?

A: We saw internal unrest, strikes on nuclear facilities, a twelve-day war — everything seemed against Iran. But the situation reversed. It turned out that decisive retaliation can change everything.

Control of Resources Is Not Control of Routes

Q: Ordinary people ask: why can Iran do this, and we cannot?

A: A logical question. If you cannot respond to force with force, diplomacy means little. Iran taught a lesson: controlling resources is not the same as controlling routes. You may have oil, ports, and weapons — but without control over logistics, you are nothing.

Q: Is this lesson applicable to the Black Sea?

A: Absolutely. Military bloggers have long argued for blocking Ukrainian ports and rail routes. Iran closed Hormuz — we could close the Black Sea. The fleet suffered losses due to misuse, but it can still operate as a missile platform at a distance. We have the means — drones, missiles — but do not use them fully.

We Are Fighting by Outdated Rules

Q: Why are we still following rules no one else observes?

A: We live in the past. We uphold international law while others have abandoned it. Society sees Iran's actions as decisive — but elites lack consensus and determination.

Q: What about the lifting of sanctions for a month?

A: That happened only because it suits the US at the moment. This is not our achievement. The game is not played by us — it is played on us. That is our key strategic miscalculation. There are no rules anymore — yet we pretend they still exist.

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