'They Tried to Break Iran – They Failed:' What the Middle East Will Look Like After the Conflict

Pravda.Ru special correspondent Daria Aslamova conducted an interview with President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Murad Sadygzade, who explains why Netanyahu's plan to split Iran failed, what the Arab monarchies really want, and when the Middle East may rise from the ashes of war.

Photo: United States Department of Defense is licensed under public domain

The destroyer USS Thomas Hudner during Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

Iranian Azerbaijanis are consolidated around Iran

Q: Netanyahu called on Persians, Kurds, Baloch, and Azerbaijanis to throw off the yoke of tyranny and rise up. You yourself are of Azerbaijani origin. Is this bet on an ethnic split in Iran realistic?

A: I have been to Iran many times, and I am not speaking from what I've read, but from what I've seen. Iranian Azerbaijanis are quite strongly consolidated around Iran itself. First of all, one must understand: they are not oppressed there, as Western media try to portray it. In many provinces with an Azerbaijani majority-for example, in Tabriz-people speak their own language, communicate freely, and study in schools. To talk about repression is propaganda and a lie. I have been to all these cities. People go about their lives. It doesn't matter whom you speak with-a Persian, a Kurd, or an Arab. Even in Isfahan there is one of the largest Jewish diasporas in the entire Middle East.

Q: Jews in Iran? That's unexpected.

A: Up to two hundred thousand people. The largest compact Jewish diaspora in the Middle East exists only in Iran. Nowhere else is there anything like it. They even have representatives in parliament. They feel quite comfortable. Some have relatives who moved to Israel-the connection is now difficult to maintain because of the war. But the very existence of such a diaspora speaks volumes. The Islamic Republic does not recognize the State of Israel-and the State of Israel takes a hard line toward everything connected with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Yet people live, and they live normally.

Q: And what about the Kurds and the Baloch – is the situation different for them?

A: With the Baloch-yes, there is tension. They live in eastern Iran, on the border with Afghanistan; there are periodic shootings and terrorist attacks. The situation with the Kurds is also complicated. For quite some time, the Kurds actively cooperated with Israel-both Iraqi and Turkish Kurds. During Saddam Hussein's rule, Israel actively supported the Kurds because Saddam was then the main threat. At the beginning of the current phase of the war, there was talk that Kurdish units would move against Iran. Five parties, the Eastern Kurdistan Alliance-radical separatist movements, some based in Europe, others in Iraq. Weapons were smuggled to them through porous borders, and they were constantly incited against Tehran. What did the official authorities do? They carried out a counterterrorism operation. Those who are informed see certain parallels with other countries that fight for their territorial integrity, while the West once again finances terrorist groups and calls them freedom fighters.

Is this ideology or simply a struggle for regional leadership?

Q: If we talk about Israel's goals in the region-is it about becoming the sole major hegemon?

A: Look at history. During the Iran-Iraq War, Israel-surprisingly-armed Iran, because at that time Saddam Hussein with his large army was considered the main enemy. Then Saddam was eliminated. After him-Gaddafi. The last country in this project is Iran. This is not about religion. It is about who will dominate from the Nile to the Euphrates. The ultra-right in Israel say it openly-Greater Israel, the restoration of lands promised in the Torah. That includes Saudi Arabia, part of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen. That is the full map of their ambitions.

Q: Is that Zionism?

A: It is ultra-right nationalism, which today in Israel is called Zionism. I want to note right away-I am always against antisemitism. In Israel itself, a significant part of the population does not support what is happening. Orthodox Jews do not support it. Nor do a number of secular Israeli citizens. This is the agenda of the ultra-right. These people openly say that Palestinians can be exterminated because they are not human. They speak about Greater Israel. Netanyahu himself, by the way, is not particularly ultra-right or especially religious-but he has a coalition with fanatics who push him forward. The US ambassador to Israel, Huckabee, defends Israel's interests, not those of the United States. Rubio, Lindsey Graham-they do not think at all about the interests of the American people.

Q: Trump said he serves the Jewish people. And this is the President of the United States.

A: Then he should be sent to Israel. Give him citizenship-let him live there. Seriously, it sounds absurd. You are the President of the United States. Serve the American people.

They thought they would pay-and be safe

Q: Are the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf shocked by what is happening?

A: Absolutely shocked. For a long time, they believed: we pay the Americans for security, we are financial centers, a luxurious oasis-and everything will be fine. The attack on Iran showed them: yesterday it was Iran, tomorrow it will be us. They sincerely believed they could avoid making choices-just pay. Now they will have to choose. Iran has now forced all the Arabian monarchies into that choice.

Look at how the Arabs received Biden-publicly humiliating him, treating him with no respect. Trump arrived-a ceremonial reception, promises of three trillion dollars. But a memorandum of intent does not mean payment. It means: make the person feel good. We solemnly tell you: Trump, you are great. And then-sorry, we have force majeure.

Q: Eastern cunning?

A: People in the East read character very well. They think: let's flatter him, he will soon be gone, there will be no second term. If Vance comes-he is someone you can do business with, he is reasonable. That is how they see it. At the same time, they understand: Trump is completely unpredictable. It is dangerous to anger him. So-investments, ceremonial receptions. You have to buy time. Then we will see.

The British demonstrated this pressure tactic earlier. When difficulties arose between London and Riyadh in 2016-2017, the British Parliament abruptly suspended the sale of already contracted weapons-they suddenly remembered women's rights, Yemen. Then everything was quickly forgotten, because new contracts were signed. The West has no values. Only political and national interests. Everything else is packaging. And everyone said: how can one wage war during the holy month of Ramadan? Yet they do. For Iranians, the spring holiday and New Year, Nowruz, is very important. They also met it under tragic circumstances.

Iran's main mistake is that it still does not have nuclear weapons

Q: Was the attack on Iran during Ramadan a miscalculation by the Americans or a deliberate provocation?

A: On the Israeli side, there was a strong religious undertone-it all began during the period of Purim. According to the Book of Esther, it is the eve of a holiday of victory, when they were allowed to attack and kill seventy-five thousand Persians. For them, this is symbolic-in their very archaic ultra-right worldview. For Iranians, Ramadan is a cult of martyrdom: shahids, death for the homeland in a sacred month is considered the highest happiness. By attacking during Ramadan, they only strengthened the desire of Iranians to fight. This is either a deliberate provocation or a colossal miscalculation. The US has intelligence, analysts. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Trump: Iran is not a threat. Trump replied: she knows nothing. Whether they listen to intelligence there is a rhetorical question.

Q: Has the Iranian system proved impenetrable?

A: A friend of mine visited Iran in the early 2000s. A person extremely hostile to the Iranian regime. He looked and said: this regime has two or three years left. Now it is 2026. Twenty-three years later-the regime still stands. The Americans and Israelis tried to play the ethnic card-it failed. They tried to create a socio-economic crisis-it failed. They killed Khamenei-thinking everything would collapse. The Iranian system proved impenetrable. They can win a war, they can destroy everything. But they will never win the peace-the postwar settlement, so that the people would feel sympathy toward the West. They can only create devastation. Iranians understand this. The entire Middle East saw it in Iraq, in Libya. And no one even talks about Lebanon-it is being destroyed before our eyes, territories are being seized, bombed. But all the media are silent. There is no oil there, so no one cares about Lebanon.

Q: Would nuclear weapons for Iran be a good thing for the region?

A: Forgive me, Iranian colleagues and friends, but it is their greatest mistake that they still have not obtained them. It would create a certain balance-even if only short-term. Yes, later Turkey and Saudi Arabia would want them too. That is inevitable-but that is the next level. After the attack on Iran, everyone understood: without nuclear weapons, you are not safe. That is what this war has shown.

Q: Are we approaching the nuclear threshold?

A: It is not even necessary to use nuclear weapons. Strikes on nuclear facilities are already a catastrophe. According to nuclear safety agreements, the explosion of a nuclear facility in terms of consequences is equivalent to the use of nuclear weapons. An explosion at an Iranian nuclear power plant would mean several Chernobyls at once. If a reactor in Dimona in Israel is hit, the Eastern Mediterranean will become uninhabitable. People seem to have lost their sense of fear. They do not understand where this is heading. But you and I-I have been on the front lines, in the new territories-we understand. War is not a computer game.

A generation that has not seen a nuclear mushroom cloud

Q: Professor Sergei Karaganov says European elites have lost their instinct. For almost seventy years they have not seen war. They have not seen a nuclear mushroom cloud, not seen tests. We grew up being shown a nuclear mushroom cloud-we understand what it looks like and how it ends for everyone. But a generation of politicians has grown up for whom war is an abstraction. Capitalism, individualism, consumption-those are their values.

A: People abroad often ask me why Russians are so fixated on the Victory Day parade. We do not hold the parade so that people admire our weapons. We do it because we remember the price our ancestors paid. My entire family took part in the war. Friends from across the post-Soviet space-their families fought against fascism. For us, war is not just someone going out and shooting. What is happening now in Ukraine-for me, it is a tragedy. We understand that Ukraine was forced into this. Perhaps there were also our diplomatic missteps initially. Maybe we should have responded more harshly preemptively. But we understand that this is war. In Europe, they do not understand this. A certain immoral approach has emerged even toward family values. That is their path-I do not judge it. But I live in different coordinates.

I have spent my entire conscious life in Moscow, among different nationalities and religions. God is one-it is important to share the values of the people you love. That is what Russia is, that is what the Middle East is-different ethno-confessional groups in dialogue. The West tries to grind all of this down and make it uniform. That is why they do not understand why Iranians have consolidated, why they are ready to die.

The phoenix will rise from the ashes

Q: What will happen to the Arab world after all this? Has the bubble of illusions burst?

A: It has burst, yes. Planes are not flying, there are no tourists, oil is not being pumped, business has stalled. But there is a margin of safety. Countries are thinking about diversification. You cannot in one moment tell the Americans and the British: leave, we do not need your bases. Who will help with weapons? The American security umbrella allowed them to live stably. Today times have changed. This is not just a crisis of security-it is a crisis of the entire economic model. An Islamic pact is being actively discussed-Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt. Egypt and Turkey are investing in a joint fifth-generation fighter. Because there are no eternal Sunni-Shia contradictions among ordinary people. I have seen this in Iraq, in Iran, in Azerbaijan. Ordinary Shiites and Sunnis can enter the same mosque. The split is artificially fueled by the West.

Q: Division or unity – what will prevail?

A: Iran's President Pezeshkian-by the way, an ethnic Azerbaijani, which answers your question about discrimination of nationalities in Iran-once said a very beautiful thing. Why can Europeans board a train in Berlin and end up in Madrid? Why can't we board in Kabul and, through Tehran, Ankara, Baghdad, reach Mecca and Medina? We simply need to end the fragmentation of the Middle Eastern world. And paradoxically, this war by the United States and Israel against Iran may help resolve this issue-if, of course, it does not end in nuclear Armageddon.

Q: Do you believe that unity of the Islamic world is possible?

A: There is a symbol-the phoenix bird. From this ash of war, the Middle East may rise united. Israeli society will grow tired. The authorities will grow tired. A certain catharsis will occur-and these divisions will come to an end. A large integrated region, where different routes, different cultures, different peoples exist in dialogue. Is it a utopia? Perhaps. But that is what one would like to see. A renaissance. So that in the end all of this can be put right. The Americans themselves destroyed the entire system of international relations, the mechanism of international law, supranational institutions, including the UN. There are no rules anymore. The hegemon wanted too much. And now it has driven itself into a corner-like an animal cornered, aggressively defending its position. They thought they would corner Iran. It turned out-they cornered themselves.