From Shadow Fleets to Drone Boats: Russian Analyst on the Future of Naval Warfare

Pravda.Ru special correspondent Daria Aslamova interviewed associate professor at Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University Yuri Zverev explains why the era of beautiful ships has ended, what a "maritime Wagner” might be, and why sinking a modern warship is not as easy as it seems.

Photo: Viktor Pakhomov is licensed under Pravda.ru

Russian Black Sea Fleet warships in Sevastopol

Shadow Fleet As Normal Global Practice

Q: Yuri, let's begin with what everyone has been talking about lately. The so-called "shadow fleet.” What is it really?

A: There is no such concept as a "shadow fleet.” In economic geography there is a concept known as a flag of convenience. Ships belonging even to developed countries — including the United States — sail under such flags. Look at America's merchant fleet: it hardly exists. Why? Because the American merchant fleet sails under flags of convenience — the Cayman Islands, Panama. This is a normal practice. And notice something else: the Americans have almost no civilian shipbuilding. At one time the largest fleet in the world belonged to Liberia. Now it seems to be Panama. Even the Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Mongolia have fleets.

China Produces Half of World's Steel

Q: Who builds ships in the world today?

A: Today 94 percent of all ships in the world are built by three countries: China, South Korea, and Japan. Japan is now only in third place. The largest shipyard in the world is in South Korea. In shipbuilding China ranks first in terms of volume, and the United States, by the way, is not even in the top ten. If we talk about civilian shipbuilding, we are in the top ten but closer to the bottom, with a huge gap.

Q: So it turns out that the Chinese fleet is moving into first place in the world by all parameters.

A: China is moving into first place in the world in almost all parameters. Sometimes it is genuinely frightening. It certainly frightens the Americans. Take steel production, for example — the main structural material. Global production is about two billion tons. China produces one billion tons. The second country after China is India, with 160 million, and the United States produces only about 80 million.

I tell my students: comrades, if you don't know which country ranks first in the world by some parameter, guess "China.” In most cases you won't be wrong. I recall a slightly irreverent joke: God created heaven and earth. Everything else was made in China. When I was studying, South Africa ranked first in gold production. Now it is China.

Q: All right, I have learned the lesson. I am a good student. So China has the most powerful fleet. However, when it comes to Iran and Venezuela, China for some reason did not stand up for them.

A: If certain well-informed Telegram channels are to be believed, military transport aircraft fly there both from us and from China. And I suspect they are not transporting mattresses.

Maritime PMC Wagner as an Option

Q: We are witnessing official state maritime piracy returning. What will happen next?

A: At one time countries created what we now call private military companies. A certain Francis Drake robbed Spanish galleons. Formally he was not a British subject and did not belong to the Royal Navy. Yet after returning from his raids he was greeted at the pier by the queen and given the title of sir. History has taken such a turn.

Q: In fact we are returning to the same thing. We need a maritime Wagner.

A: As an option. The idea is in the air. The fact that the situation with Wagner turned out not entirely successful for well-known reasons simply means that companies of this kind should be more carefully controlled by the state. Formally independent. In reality — not.

Q: Sailors — or rather, people who go to sea — corrected me for my land-based thinking when I mentioned the idea of a maritime Wagner. They say sinking a ship is not such a simple task. There are successful cases, but in general it is quite difficult to sink any ship. So how would one arm a maritime Wagner?

A: There is a good option regarding ships. For example, this comes to mind: if we are not building ships larger than a frigate, we could order warships at Chinese shipyards. Why not? China is a friendly country. I will tell you a remarkable story that many people do not know. In 1937 fascists were in power in Italy — Benito Mussolini. Our pilots and tank crews were fighting the Italians in Spain. At the same time the Soviet Union was building a destroyer leader called "Tashkent” in Italy for money. This ship "Tashkent” caused the Germans enormous trouble in the Black Sea. The Germans managed to sink it only in port, in Novorossiysk, and even then they had to send several dozen bombers. They could not defeat it at sea. And it was built by the Italians — fascists, remember. The Chinese are our friends.

Q: But the ships would be packed with Chinese electronics that could completely control us. Should that not worry us?

A: All these discussions about electronics being remotely switched off… Whose components are used in our weapons? American ones — and yet they fly and bomb. Even the United States cannot switch entirely to domestic production. Americans supply themselves with their own semiconductors only about thirty percent. They depend on Taiwan. The Taiwanese do not want to build their factories in America.

Licenses, Barter, and North Korea

Q: If we order ships from China, we are destroying our own industry.

A: Why? Licensed production is possible. Buying a license is a normal idea.

Q: The problem is that China does not want to sell licenses.

A: Then there is barter. For example, our specialists are building a missile attack early-warning system in China. It is a system of radars that tracks ballistic missiles flying toward China. China did not have such a system before. This is not a military secret. One of these radars is located here in the Kaliningrad region. It is called "Voronezh.” Exchange something for something else. We give you this — you give us that.

Q: China's strength lies in the fact that it is ready to do everything on its own territory but does not intend to share with anyone.

A: Nevertheless, there are options. Some things could even be obtained from North Korea. North Korea has developments in shipbuilding that are at least not worse than ours. For example, they have good miniature submarines for combat swimmers. One of them is displayed here in the Museum of the World Ocean. Many of these technologies have largely disappeared in our country.

The Naval Revolution Began in 1967

Q: The special military operation revealed a serious problem. The fleet did not particularly distinguish itself. Warfare has changed, and the fleet must change as well.

A: But this applies to the whole world. The revolution in military affairs in this sense occurred in the summer of 1967. Have you heard about the destroyer "Eilat”? It sailed to the Egyptian coast after Egypt's defeat in the Six-Day War. For the first time in history it was struck by several anti-ship missiles launched from Egyptian boats that did not even leave their base. The ship was successfully sunk. It was the first use of anti-ship missile weapons in history. At that time only the Soviet Union possessed them, and we supplied them to Egypt. These were Komar-class missile boats.

Since then the issue of fleets has become acute. When we speak about a blockade of the Baltic Sea, there is something called "Bastion.” It is an anti-ship missile mounted on a mobile chassis. Its speed is three times the speed of sound, and it is quite difficult to shoot down. They are here — that is no secret. We regularly see them at the May 9 parades in Kaliningrad.

The Era of Beautiful Ships Has Ended

Q: Has the era of large romantic ships passed, just as the age of sailing fleets passed?

A: Just like the era of tanks and many other things. In the conditions of modern warfare, even without anti-ship missiles, a large beautiful ship can easily turn into a pile of scrap metal.

Balance is needed. Why do aircraft carriers remain viable? If you send a lone aircraft carrier, it is finished. In fact, you do not even need to sink it. The only weapon of an aircraft carrier is its aviation. If you deprive it of the ability to launch and recover aircraft, let it float — who needs it? But the main strength of an aircraft carrier is its carrier strike group. Behind the carrier sail a couple of cruisers that protect it, several destroyers, and somewhere deeper there are one or two nuclear submarines. Breaking through all of that is quite difficult.

If some lonely ship is wandering around, like the battleship "Bismarck,” its fate is unenviable — eventually it was hunted down and sunk in May 1941. And to sink the powerful Japanese battleship "Yamato,” a raid of 386 aircraft was required. At one time one of the American presidents said: "When a crisis emerges, the first thing I ask the Pentagon is: do we have an aircraft carrier there? If they tell me we do, I calm down.” Though we will see what the war with Iran shows.

Look at what is replacing large equipment and big ships. We now see a war of robots. All countries — including ours — have already used unmanned boats in the special military operation. A Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel on the Danube was sunk by such boats. These unmanned boats can be both surface and underwater. They can even be armed against aircraft and helicopters. Anti-aircraft missiles are being installed on them. In other words, if a helicopter tries to destroy such a boat, it is no longer a defenseless machine.

Q: They say it can even carry a nuclear charge.

A: Our "Poseidon” is exactly such a boat with a nuclear charge. It is the well-known underwater torpedo that people talk about so much. In essence it is an unmanned boat, only very large, very fast, and equipped with a thermonuclear charge. It is a war of drones — including large unmanned aerial vehicles.

In some ways we were late, because everyone was late. Look at NATO exercises — how many tanks there have cages and grills to protect against drones? They still do not even put drone nets on their tanks.

Q: They learn quickly. As the saying goes: the first column will fall, the second will fall, and the third will learn.

A: I agree, but that applies to those who are actually fighting. I have the impression that NATO is not yet preparing for modern war. I look at the Poles — they are buying huge numbers of tanks and howitzers. But they hardly have any drones. Their air defense is only enough to protect Warsaw. They have 16 Patriot missile launchers for the entire army. And exactly 208 missiles for them. According to regulations two missiles are needed per target, so at most Poland could engage one hundred targets in the event of an air raid on Warsaw. How many drones strike Kyiv in one night?

They are now purchasing and creating a multilayered system. But it will appear only by 2030, perhaps by 2035. I do not think Russia will sit still and wait all that time. By the way, returning to licenses — someone had the idea to buy the Shahed-136 in Iran and turn it into the Geran, and then modernize it. I think the author of that idea should receive the title Hero of Russia.

Soviet Aircraft Carriers and the Submarine Fleet

Q: At one time it was believed that aircraft carriers were weapons of imperialist aggression, that we were not planning to fight across the ocean, and therefore did not need them. Although from time to time there were plans to build them. Projects for aircraft carriers existed even under Comrade Stalin.

A: Why are we not interested in them?

Q: Because they are very expensive. A modern aircraft carrier costs about 10-15 billion dollars.

A: In the Soviet Union the emphasis was on missile-carrying naval aviation. Today, within the framework of the special military operation, Kh-22 missiles are used — these are anti-ship missiles. We now use them against ground targets. We had powerful missile aviation and a very strong nuclear submarine fleet. By the way, if you look at who received the title Hero of the Soviet Union in peacetime — first cosmonauts, second submariners. The whole country knew the cosmonauts, but almost no one knew the submariners. In 1966 two nuclear submarines even completed a circumnavigation of the globe. In 1985, under Mikhail Gorbachev, our sailors managed to send a submarine into the Atlantic Ocean through the Greenland-Iceland-Norway line while remaining underwater. The commander received the title of Hero.

The Baltic Fleet and the A2/AD Zone

Q: If we talk about the Baltic Fleet, it is often said that it is located in an inconvenient position. Remember the Second World War, when our fleet was essentially trapped in the Gulf of Finland. Have we learned anything from that? And in general, is the Baltic Fleet mainly for show during holidays, or has it been modernized?

A: In the West there is a concept called an anti-access and area-denial zone — A2/AD. In the Kaliningrad region a grouping has been created that restricts NATO's freedom of movement if necessary. Iskander systems are here — they are regularly shown at parades. Bastion systems against ships. Naval aviation is being modernized. Su-30 aircraft are entering the fleet's aviation units. In August 2022 a pair of MiG-31s with Kinzhal missiles arrived at the local airfield. They were stationed here on duty.

This grouping essentially restricts NATO's freedom of action. A bone in the throat. Moreover, it is being strengthened. Just last year, on the basis of a marine brigade that is fighting in the special military operation, a marine division was created. Of course the special military operation is our primary focus, but the Baltic is not being forgotten either.