Experts dispute over old Europe

"It's getting worse and worse. If things continue like this, no one is ever going to get to retire," said Roni Howath, 56, a former Vienna postal worker who retired early and now drives a cab from time to time to supplement his monthly pension.

Photo: Experts dispute over old Europe

In the past, European taxpayers relied on generous national pension plans fueled in part by those still working. But in recent years, many governments have made severe cutbacks amid fears that with fewer people paying into the system, there will be less money to dole out.

According to a recent EU report, the bloc's working age population is projected to fall by 48 million, or 16 percent, between 2010 and 2050, while the number of seniors is expected to rise sharply by 58 million, or 77 percent.

Europe will go from having four people of working age for every senior citizen to a ratio of two to one by 2050, predicts the report by the Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission.

Most companies think older workers are "inflexible" and prefer hiring younger workers instead of retraining or retaining older ones, he added.

That trend could add pressure to younger people struggling to balance job responsibilities against the need to play a bigger role in caring for aging parents.

Because general taxation is expected to come up short to pay for seniors' retirement benefits and health care, governments are looking into options such as mandatory retirement savings and insurance programs, or even spending less on the younger generation.

Grim prospects about re-entering the job market after taking time off, a lack of affordable childcare and a late start to motherhood are all putting a damper on birth rates, said Hubert Krieger, a demographics researcher at the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions in Dublin, Ireland.

The overall fertility rate for American women in 2005 was near 2.1 births per woman, compared to an estimated rate of 1.5 in Europe in 2004. A rate of about 2.1 is what it takes to replace a population in the developed world.

But America is also getting older, too, threatening both private pensions and Social Security, the government pension program. Experts say, however, that the U.S. is unlikely to age as significantly as Europe anytime soon.

The situation is quite different in Japan, which has an even lower fertility rate than most European countries, according to the AP.

The Japanese government announced in early June that more than one in five Japanese is now 65 or older, and that ratio could rise to one in four in the next decade. The country's fertility rate is 1.25.

But unlike Europe, Japan has found ways to keep seniors in the job market, said Wolfgang Lutz, director of the Vienna Institute of Demography. Upon retirement, seniors often return to their former companies as consultants and receive a government pension in addition to a reduced salary, Lutz said.

Some experts point to immigration in Europe as the key to solving the problems caused by an aging society and a dwindling work force. Immigrants long have been relied on to fill low-paying jobs in the service and health care sectors.