The closer June 30, the day when Iraq is to get its sovereignty, the more tense becomes the security situation in the country. There may be a new wave of violence after June 30, but even if nothing changes in the life of Iraqis on July 1, a new era will begin in the country. It is difficult to say what it may bring to the people, though.
President George Bush said at the US Army War College in Carlyle in late May that, as the Iraqi people come closer to self-government, terrorists will most probably become more active and ruthless. And Bush is right: Iraqi stabilisation is not in the terrorists' interests.
Mikhail Margelov, head of the Federation Council international committee, once told RIA, "The activisation of terrorists is above all proof of the correctness of the way chosen by the world community in Iraq." In his opinion, "this is a turning point in the Iraqi situation, and no one knows this better than the terrorist organisations operating there."
After June 30, nobody will be able to say that those who attack the coalition troops or Iraqis who work with them are freedom fighters. The occupation will be over de jure, and the multinational forces will remain in Iraq at the request and with the permission of the new Iraqi administration.
One can argue that this will be sham sovereignty, as the members of the interim Iraqi government have been appointed in co-ordination with the USA and the ministers' powers are limited. They may not adopt new laws or make amendments to the ones that had been drafted by the occupation authorities. But sovereignty is a value that either exists or not, Lakhdar Brahimi, special representative of the UN Secretary General, told Vremya Novostei. Any sovereignty is either recognised or not.
The sovereignty of Iraq is recognised by the international community, and this is the main thing. UN Security Council Resolution 1546 grants the Iraqi a possibility to command their troops and dispose of their national wealth. But the implementation of this resolution is quite another matter.
Much will depend on the new Iraqi government. Acting Ambassador of Russia at the UN Alexander Kanuzin said at the latest UN Security Council session on Iraq that the cabinet "will have to prove yet its ability to govern the country and to organise a truly representative political process. Much will depend on the Iraqis' acceptance of the transition from military occupation to the restoration of sovereignty and on the ability of the government to win public trust."
It is a challenging task. The Americans retained the possibility to control the situation in Iraq through multinational forces and their advisors, who are expected to work in each Iraqi ministry. The Iraqi daily al-Taakhi cited the future US deputy ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey as saying that the US advisors will be the eyes and the ears of the Embassy in the Iraqi ministries. Such statements cannot strengthen the positions of the interim government. The extremist forces will use every chance to discredit its actions in the eyes of the Iraqis and to present the ministries as US puppets.
The ministers will have to prove their independence. The restoration of security in the country depends on their ability to overturn the statements of the extremists, who do not want to lay down arms. And security is the main indicator by which the Iraqis will judge the operation of their new administration. The political and economic restoration of Iraq will be impossible without improvement of the security situation, especially because the Iraqi citizens have been deprived of the natural human right to live.
The terrorists keep in their sights absolutely all Iraqi officials, policemen, the military, and professors. This means that they can disrupt the work of the Iraqi administration, if they choose to.
Terrorist acts on the Iraqi oil pipeline area daily occurrence, automatically reducing the country's revenues from oil export and hence the sum that can be spent on economic rehabilitation. Murders and kidnappings of foreigners force foreign firms to close their offices in Iraq, which has brought the Iraqi economy to a standstill.
In an insecure situation, the UN staff and various humanitarian missions and arms control inspectors will not return to Iraq, and the issue of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has not been closed yet. The issue acquires special poignancy because the country has become a connecting yard for all kinds of terrorists.
But, most importantly, elections cannot be held in Iraq without a considerable improvement in the security situation. This means that the transition period, which is a highly vulnerable stage, can be drawn out in Iraq. So, the Iraqi settlement depends almost entirely on the restoration of security.
Early reports by PRAVDA.Ru: