New means-testing for child benefits could lower urban birth rates

Kazakhstan is revising the procedure for allocating several types of social assistance, including birth grants and childcare payments for children up to 1.5 years. Under the proposed changes, eligibility will be determined based on family need as recorded in the "Digital Family Map." Families classified within the two highest income categories may be denied these payments.

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A mother and her child

Impact on urban professional classes

Asiya Ermukhambetova, a researcher and chemical engineer, has raised concerns that these measures could discourage urban families from having more children. In a Facebook post, Ermukhambetova argued that benefits serve different functions depending on the socioeconomic status of the recipient.

According to the researcher, while such payments are a direct source of income for low-income and rural families, for highly educated urban women, they function as a tool to mitigate the financial and career risks associated with maternity leave.

Cost of living and workforce participation

Ermukhambetova emphasized that income assessments must account for actual expenditures, noting that the cost of raising children is significantly higher in major hubs like Almaty and Astana. She warned that the financial burden of urban living often outweighs the coverage provided by basic benefits.

The researcher suggested that losing these payments could lead to two primary outcomes: a decrease in birth rates among the urban middle class-the group that typically produces high-skilled professionals, scientists, IT specialists, and entrepreneurs-and a trend of mothers returning to work earlier than planned.

Scope of the changes

The proposed restrictions apply specifically to benefits funded directly from the state budget. Maternity payments for employed women, which are calculated based on their official earnings and social security contributions, are handled separately and are not affected by these specific means-testing rules.