Can Friedrich Merz Lose Power? Internal CDU Dissent Raises Leadership Questions

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing increasing political pressure as his approval ratings decline and criticism grows within his own Christian Democratic Union (CDU). According to political analyst Nikolai Topornin, the party's leadership is becoming increasingly concerned that the current political course could undermine the CDU's prospects in future elections.

Photo: commons.wikimedia by Michael Lucan, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany

Recent reports have fueled speculation about Merz's future after senior CDU figures reportedly declined to rule out a leadership change following regional elections scheduled for September. According to Der Spiegel, public criticism and private ridicule directed at the chancellor reflect a noticeable decline in his standing within the party.

Regional Elections Could Shape Merz's Political Future

Topornin said concerns over Merz's leadership have been building for some time, but criticism has now spread beyond political opponents to members of the CDU/CSU alliance itself. Party officials reportedly fear that continued losses in public support could weaken their chances in the 2029 federal election or even trigger calls for an earlier leadership change.

Drawing a comparison with recent political developments in the United Kingdom, Topornin argued that parties sometimes seek new leadership when confidence among both voters and party members begins to erode. He suggested that some voices within the CDU believe there is still time to restore public confidence by presenting a different leader before the next national election.

Opposition Gains Add to Pressure on the Governing Coalition

The analyst also pointed to the growing strength of the opposition, particularly in eastern Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to expand its electoral support. According to Topornin, the party could secure enough votes in some eastern states, including Saxony-Anhalt, to play a leading role in forming regional governments.

At the same time, he emphasized that Germany differs from the United Kingdom because the CDU currently lacks a widely accepted alternative capable of uniting both party leaders and voters. In his view, this absence of a clear successor makes an immediate leadership change less likely despite growing dissatisfaction.

Topornin added that the upcoming regional elections may prove challenging not only for the CDU but also for its coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). While political pressure on Merz continues to mount, he believes it is still too early to conclude that the chancellor's resignation is imminent.

Beyond domestic politics, Merz also faces criticism over Germany's foreign policy, including debates surrounding relations with Moscow and broader questions about Berlin's international role.