'We Are Now on the First Hump of a World War. There Will Be Two Humps'

Russia may face several decades of conflict and geopolitical confrontation, experts assumed on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), while discussing principal threats that the country faces during the second quarter of the 21st century.

During the session, titled "The Main Threats Facing Russia in the Second Quarter of the 21st Century," political analyst and Rosneft CEO adviser Andrei Bezrukov argued that modern warfare has fundamentally changed. Rather than focusing on territorial occupation and conquest, contemporary conflicts aim to exhaust opponents and undermine their resilience.

Experts Warn of Long-Term Global Confrontation

"What we see today is happening both on our fronts and in the Middle East — leaders and critical infrastructure are being targeted," Bezrukov said. In his view, Western countries seek to avoid a direct nuclear confrontation with Russia while gradually increasing pressure through a strategy he described as "boiling the frog slowly."

According to Bezrukov, the level of escalation continues to rise, citing the recent drone attack on St. Petersburg as an example. He suggested that the world may currently be experiencing the first phase of a broader global conflict.

"We are now on the first hump of a world war. There will be two humps, as there were during the First and Second World Wars," he said. He added that recent events involving Iran demonstrate that the existing global hegemon no longer enjoys uncontested dominance, while predicting that future confrontations may emerge in Asia.

Bezrukov also warned of evolving security threats, including long-range drones, cyber operations, and biological warfare. He argued that modern technologies allow drones to strike precise targets far from the battlefield and claimed that biological risks represent an additional challenge.

According to him, Russia must prepare for a prolonged period of conflict. He said that the next several decades could produce entire generations whose lives will be shaped by war and security concerns.

Malofeyev Presents Alternative Scenarios for Russia's Future

The session was moderated by businessman Konstantin Malofeyev, who presented a series of future development scenarios prepared by a group of experts that included philosopher Alexander Dugin.

According to Malofeyev, an "inertial scenario" would result in either American or Chinese global hegemony and a frozen conflict in Ukraine. He contrasted this with what he described as a more favorable scenario, under which Russia would emerge as a dominant global power following a decisive geopolitical transformation.

Malofeyev argued that the key requirement for achieving national objectives is what he called a "defensive consciousness." He said patriotism should become a way of life and that military technologies must play a leading role in national development.

Family Values, Constitutional Reform and State Authority

At the conclusion of his presentation, Malofeyev displayed a list of ten proposed governance measures that experts identified as important for strengthening the Russian state. The measures included ideology, the nationalization of elites, autocracy, the authority of the armed forces, digital sovereignty, a cult of the family, a new constitution, and several other initiatives.

Malofeyev stressed that the items were not arranged according to priority.

"If you ask military personnel, they will say the leadership role of the army is the most important. If you ask lawyers, they will point to the constitution. People responsible for demographic policy will speak about the cult of the family. All of these measures are important," he said.

He added that the expert group intends to continue gathering opinions and assessing potential threats in order to identify what it considers the most effective responses to future challenges.

The discussion reflected broader debates within Russian political and strategic circles regarding national security, geopolitical competition, state governance, demographic policy, and the country's long-term role in an increasingly fragmented international system.