Freight Rates Surge and Insurance Hits 20% as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Oil Market

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a critical imbalance in oil market pricing, according to energy sovereignty and industrial markets analyst Freddy Gustavo Velasquez Robles.

Photo: navy.mil by Оператор ВМС США Уильям С. Стивенс, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

The Liberian-flagged oil tanker MV Sirius Star is at anchor.

Global Energy Security Structure Faces Collapse

Velasquez Robles said the conflict in the Middle East signals the definitive failure of the existing global energy security architecture. In his view, the situation will force a reassessment of supply structures in the context of regional strategic survival, RIA Novosti reports.

Freight tariffs have become hyper-volatile. Due to navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, tankers now reroute around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 10 to 15 days and significantly increasing costs.

Insurance premiums have climbed to as much as 20 percent of cargo value. This surge in expenses intensifies inflationary pressure on refineries and ultimately on end consumers.

Brent Oil Forecast for Spring 2026

The expert's baseline scenario for March through May 2026 assumes that Brent crude will trade in the range of $95 to $115 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Artem Kiryanov said there are currently no grounds to speculate about potential benefits Russia might gain from a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that the situation remains short-term in nature.