Quiet Talks, Big Stakes: Abu Dhabi Meeting May Decide Ukraine’s Future

Trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, held in the United Arab Emirates on February 4-5, could make it possible to resolve the Ukraine conflict by spring.

Photo: Кировский районный исполнительный комитет by БелТА, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus

"I’m cautiously optimistic that we have a reasonable chance to end this conflict in the spring," an anonymous Republican foreign policy expert said in a commentary to Politico.

The main Russian delegation arrived in Abu Dhabi on the evening of February 3, led by Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. On February 4, additional participants arrived, including aircraft carrying Steven Witkoff, Special Envoy of US President Donald Trump for the Middle East, and Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries.

The Ukrainian negotiating team, led by Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, also arrived in Abu Dhabi the same day.

Who Took Part in the Delegations

According to available information, the Ukrainian delegation included:

• Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine;
• Serhiy Kyslytsia, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office;
• David Arakhamia, Head of the ruling parliamentary faction "Servant of the People”;
• Andriy Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
• Oleksandr Bevz, Advisor to the Presidential Office.

The composition of the Russian delegation remained unchanged compared to the January 24 meeting. In addition to Igor Kostyukov, it included Alexander Zorin, a senior official of the General Staff who previously participated in the Istanbul negotiations in May-June 2025.

Although the participation of Dmitriev and Witkoff in the trilateral format was not formally announced, both held parallel bilateral discussions during earlier rounds of talks between Russia and the United States.

How the Talks Began

According to RIA Novosti, all meetings on February 4-5 were held behind closed doors without press access, though a final communiqué may be released. TASS, citing a source, reported that all parties now share an understanding that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO.

"The understanding that Ukraine will not be in NATO is already present among all participants.”

Why Washington Sees Grounds for Optimism

In the early hours of February 4, Donald Trump responded to recent Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, rejecting accusations by Volodymyr Zelensky of violations of an infrastructure ceasefire. Trump stated that the agreement had been in effect from January 25 to February 1 and that Vladimir Putin had honored his commitment.

"Putin kept his word on this point. That was significant. One week was enough, because it was very, very cold.”

The Republican expert interviewed by Politico also attributed progress to changes within the Ukrainian delegation, particularly following the resignation of former Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak and the inclusion of David Arakhamia, who had taken part in the Istanbul negotiations in spring 2022.

At the same time, a senior Ukrainian official speaking anonymously expressed skepticism about rapid breakthroughs, while praising the professionalism of the Russian delegation.

"Russian intelligence officers acted professionally, focusing on practical details.”