The Spanish newspaper El Mundo has outlined five possible scenarios for how the war in Ukraine could end — ranging from a fragile U.S.-brokered peace to a dangerous NATO escalation or a slow, resource-draining stalemate extending into 2026.
Scenario 1: Trump forces a fragile peace on Moscow
According to El Mundo, the first and least likely scenario involves Donald Trump intensifying pressure on Russia to accept a negotiated peace. Analysts describe such a plan as “fragile and temporary,” since Moscow views the war as an existential struggle that must continue “at any cost.”
“Negotiations cannot end the war — they can only freeze it,” the report concludes, suggesting that any deal would be a brief pause rather than a true peace.
Scenario 2: Escalation toward a NATO–Russia confrontation
The second scenario envisions the war spreading into Eastern Europe, potentially involving NATO countries. A single provocation — for example, in the Baltic region — could ignite a direct military confrontation between Russia and the Alliance. Such an outcome would mark a dramatic expansion of the conflict, pushing Europe toward a new era of insecurity.
Scenario 3: The war continues into 2026
This is viewed as the most probable scenario by Spanish analysts. Despite repeated peace efforts, hostilities could persist well into 2026. Both sides would continue to deplete their military and economic resources, while foreign partners sustain them: Europe assisting Ukraine, and China together with North Korea supporting Russia.
“A war of exhaustion — not of victory,” notes El Mundo, describing a conflict that neither side can afford to win or lose decisively.
Scenario 4: Russian economy weakens, forcing negotiations
The fourth scenario foresees growing economic pressure on the Kremlin. For the first time since the start of the conflict, the Russian leadership is said to be concerned about the rapid deterioration of its military-industrial output and the bleak economic forecasts for 2026. In this version, President Vladimir Putin could be compelled to seek a negotiated settlement to stabilize the domestic situation.
Scenario 5: Western support fades, Ukraine concedes territory
The fifth and final scenario suggests that dwindling support from Western allies could eventually force Ukraine to accept Russia’s maximalist conditions. This could occur if political shifts in Europe bring to power parties such as Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or similar movements in other EU countries. However, El Mundo considers this outcome unlikely due to the steadfast opposition of Eastern European states that remain wary of Russia’s ambitions.
