On July 9, Taiwan will launch its annual Han Kuang military exercises—but this year, they are twice as long and larger than ever before. The 10-day war games will include over 22,000 reservists alongside regular forces in what the Ministry of National Defense describes as "unprecedented round-the-clock live-fire combat drills," aimed at simulating realistic wartime conditions.
The drills are designed to replicate a multi-stage conflict. In the initial phase, Taiwan will face so-called “grey zone” threats such as cyberattacks and economic coercion. This will be followed by a simulation of a full-scale assault: joint missile strikes and an amphibious landing by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China. Troops and reservists will train for combat both along potential beach landing zones and in urban settings. In parallel, civil defense exercises will be held across the island, including simulated missile strikes and mass evacuations, with public transport and business operations temporarily halted in major cities.
A Historical Standoff
Following the end of China’s civil war in 1949, the defeated Kuomintang government fled to Taiwan and continued to claim legitimacy as the government of all China. Until the 1970s, much of the international community—including the United Nations—recognized the Republic of China (Taiwan) over the communist People's Republic of China.
However, in 1971, Taiwan lost its seat in the UN, and its diplomatic support steadily dwindled. Today, only 12 countries—among them the Vatican, Belize, and Paraguay—recognize Taiwan's independence. Meanwhile, Beijing insists that Taiwan is a breakaway province and continues to reject Taipei’s refusal to accept the “One Country, Two Systems” model proposed by the mainland.
Why 2027 Keeps Coming Up
In recent years, 2027 has increasingly been identified as a potential flashpoint for war in the Taiwan Strait. In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before Congress that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered the PLA to be ready to take Taiwan by force no later than 2027. CIA Director William Burns confirmed in 2023 that US intelligence had reached the same conclusion.
In March 2025, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense publicly acknowledged—for the first time—that 2027 could mark the start of aggression from the mainland. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in May, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized: “The PLA is building the capability to do this [invade Taiwan] at breathtaking speed. They’re preparing every single day.”
According to The Interpreter, several factors make 2027 significant. It will mark the 100th anniversary of the PLA and the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party—where Xi could secure an unprecedented fourth term. The year also coincides with the final year of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s term, ahead of elections in early 2028.
China’s Growing Military Edge
At the 20th Party Congress, the CCP committed to reaching its “centennial goals” for military modernization by 2027. Russian analyst Vasily Kashin notes this will include a revamped strategic deterrence system, a reformed military procurement model, and widespread integration of artificial intelligence into the PLA.
Meanwhile, China’s rhetoric toward Taiwan has become increasingly aggressive. In February 2025, Singapore-based outlet ThinkChina observed that government language referencing “peaceful reunification” had quietly disappeared from official Chinese documents. In March, Reuters noted the same omission in Premier Li Qiang’s annual policy address. When asked whether this signaled a policy shift, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office insisted that “peaceful reunification remains our fundamental policy,” but also warned Beijing was ready to take “decisive measures” if provoked.
