An 80% Chance of a Massive Earthquake Within 30 Years
Preliminary estimates suggest an 80% probability that an earthquake with a magnitude between 8 and 9 will strike within the next three decades. Experts warn that the ensuing seismic shocks and tsunami waves ranging from 3 to 20 meters in height could claim nearly 300,000 lives and devastate over two million buildings.
Tailored Local Plans to Strengthen Preparedness
Authorities have tasked municipalities with crafting tailored crisis management plans that address local conditions—ranging from infrastructure reinforcement to stockpiling food supplies and defining evacuation routes. Hospitals, department stores, and other public institutions are mandated to develop detailed protocols for responding to earthquakes and tsunamis.
Heightened Risk Focus: Nagasaki Prefecture
Special attention is being directed at Nagasaki Prefecture, where risk levels have significantly increased. While the flood-prone area was estimated at 1,540 hectares in 2012, it now spans nearly 2,000 hectares. The expected death toll in the region has risen from 80 to 500 people. Officials emphasize that these losses can be averted through timely evacuation and effective preparedness.
Ambitious Goals and Concrete Measures
At a recent Disaster Prevention Council meeting, the government reaffirmed its previous objective: to reduce earthquake-related fatalities by 80% and cut building destruction by half within the next decade. To achieve this, a comprehensive list of 205 targeted actions has been compiled, including public awareness campaigns, large-scale drills, and the deployment of digital alert systems.
