Geopolitics Hijacks Space: ISS Faces Demise Sooner Than Expected

The International Space Station (ISS) may be completely removed from orbit by 2030. According to Marat Abubekerov, a PhD in Physics and Mathematics and senior researcher in the Department of Stellar Astrophysics at Lomonosov Moscow State University's Sternberg Astronomical Institute, the process of deorbiting the complex is scheduled to begin in 2028.

While the timeline for the station's operation is frequently extended due to a lack of immediate replacements, current discussions between Roscosmos and NASA focus on the final stages of the mission. Dmitry Bakanov, head of Roscosmos, stated that the parties are negotiating technical aspects of the project's conclusion and the subsequent safe sinking of the structures. This final phase requires complex engineering calculations to ensure debris lands in uninhabited areas of the ocean.

Abubekerov notes that the station's physical resources still allow for continued operation. He argues that the decision to terminate the project is driven more by the geopolitical climate than by technical wear and tear, as space is no longer a zone free from external political disputes.

Future Orbital Infrastructure

As the ISS nears its end, different nations are pursuing separate paths for orbital presence. Russia is currently developing the Russian Orbital Station (ROS), which is slated to enter operation in 2036. Meanwhile, U.S. plans for a direct alternative to the ISS remain less defined. Simultaneously, China is expanding its presence with the development of its own multi-module station, Tiangong.

Despite the preparations for decommissioning, the scientific program on the ISS continues in full. The station currently serves two primary functions:

• Deep Space Preparation: Serving as a base for international expeditions preparing for future missions to the Moon.
• Applied Manufacturing: Producing unique semiconductor crystals that cannot be created under the conditions of Earth's gravity.

Abubekerov maintains that the ISS should continue functioning until 2028, adding that if not for foreign policy frictions, the question of its timely removal from orbit would likely not be raised in the near future.

Source: This article was adapted from an original Russian-language publication by Pravda.Ru.