Global Smartphone Market Faces Sharpest Decline Since 2013, Analysts Warn

The global smartphone market is on track to record its most significant annual contraction since 2013, according to a new report from research firm Counterpoint Research.

Following a reassessment of market conditions, analysts revised their forecast for 2026. In February, the firm projected a decline of 12.4 percent for the year. The latest estimate now points to a steeper drop of 13.9 percent.

Counterpoint Research described the projected downturn as the largest annual decline since it began tracking the smartphone market in 2013.

Supply Chain Pressures Continue to Weigh on the Industry

Researchers estimate that global smartphone shipments will total approximately 1.08 billion units in 2026.

According to the report, one of the key factors behind the worsening outlook is the growing disruption in supplies of memory components.

Analysts said the situation has become more challenging as a result of supply chain pressures linked to the armed conflict between the United States and Iran.

Manufacturers across the industry continue to face difficulties securing essential components needed for smartphone production.

Budget Device Makers Face the Greatest Challenges

The report noted that the global smartphone market contracted by 3.1 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026.

The decline marked the first quarterly downturn after nine consecutive quarters of growth.

Analysts said the crisis has had the greatest impact on manufacturers operating in the lower-priced segment of the market.

"The key question in the smartphone industry is no longer how to increase shipments or market share, but whether it is worth remaining in the market at all,” analyst Yan Wang said.

The revised forecast highlights growing uncertainty across the consumer electronics sector as manufacturers confront weakening demand, rising costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions.