The rise of the world’s oceans is no longer a prediction — it is a measurable reality. Over the past century, the global sea level has climbed by more than 21 centimeters, and experts warn that the process is accelerating. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, coastlines across the planet will shift dramatically by the end of the 21st century, while under pessimistic ones, parts of coastal territories could be lost entirely.
How fast the ocean is rising
Today, the global sea level increases by an average of about 3.2 millimeters per year — a figure that might seem small but adds up to tens of centimeters over a few decades. According to international climate models, the ocean could rise by 30–65 centimeters by 2100, and if Antarctic ice shelves collapse, the increase could reach 1.3 meters. Some projections for 2300 even predict a rise of 5.5 to 5.6 meters.
“If the current trend continues, Russia will lose part of its coastal territories,” warned oceanologist Filipp Sapozhnikov, senior researcher at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Which parts of Russia are at risk
According to Sapozhnikov, total flooding is unlikely, but certain areas face significant threats.
- Black Sea Region: Coastal erosion threatens areas such as Azov, southern Rostov-on-Don, Kerch, and Adler. Even small increases in sea level can accelerate shoreline retreat.
- Northwest: Saint Petersburg and its surroundings, including Kronstadt and Sestroretsk, could face flooding. However, the city remains protected by a modern dam system.
- North: Arctic settlements like Varandey, Naryan-Mar, and Salekhard are especially vulnerable due to permafrost thawing and rising sea levels.
- Far East: The port city of Nakhodka faces risk, as much of its infrastructure sits close to the shoreline.
Why the sea is rising
The main drivers of sea level rise are the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the thermal expansion of seawater as global temperatures climb. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the process would continue for decades. Research indicates that every 1–2°C increase in global temperature adds several millimeters to the ocean’s annual rise.
“The greatest danger for Russia is not sudden flooding but the slow retreat of the coastline,” explained Sapozhnikov.
What scientists think
Other experts remain more optimistic. Geographer Aleksei Kokorin noted that forecasts vary depending on models and assumptions about ice melt. “What does half a meter mean for Saint Petersburg? Nothing. The dam can easily handle it. For Vladivostok or Kerch, it won’t be catastrophic either,” he said. Kokorin added that sea levels rise unevenly: tropical regions are experiencing faster increases than northern latitudes.
What happens if sea levels rise by one meter
Even a one-meter rise in global sea level would redraw the world map. Coastal lowlands would become swamps, and some regions would lose access to freshwater. Russia would be less affected than countries like the Netherlands or Bangladesh, but the impact would still be felt — especially in low-lying quarters of Saint Petersburg, the river deltas of the Kuban and Don, Arctic settlements, and Far Eastern port facilities.
“Russia has few low-lying areas vulnerable to sea level rise,” emphasized Kokorin.
