Most likely, Russia will have to exercise its devotion to American values
On the seventh day of the war, George W. Bush addressed to the Congress, asking to allocate more funds from the state budget for the war in the Middle East. The American president asked for 47 billion dollars. This figure adds to the general spending on the implementation of the military campaign. To all appearances, a more objective figure would be around 100 billion dollars for one month of the operation. However, it is already clear that the campaign will last longer than one month. That is why, one shall assume that the figure of $200 billion is close to the minimum level of the war spending. This coincides with English newspapers' evaluations. Such expenditure is not disastrous for the American state budget, although it makes the situation critical: the budget might burst without any additions or special measures.
According to experts' estimates, three months with the spending like that might cause irreparable shock to the American economy against the background of big structural problems that have been saved in the American economy over recent 50 years. In addition to that, the American government uses so-called invisible articles of expenditure in order to raise stock and exchange indexes in an artificial way. The economic constituent of the aggression becomes extremely important in this respect. This is very big money, which might push the country towards the inflation disaster, when the majority of the American population might go to banks to close all their accounts. It goes without saying that such events will break the fragile economic balance of the current war and of the entire American economy. On the other hand, there will be a small group of very influential people, who will make a lot of money on that. It would be very easy to change the political administration of the country too, taking into consideration the opposition between American financial, oil and defense sectors. This opposition is embodied in the Cheney-Wolfovitz- Rumsfeld group. In this scenario, the incumbent administration will have nothing to do, but to use emergency measures, introduce the military economy and break the opposition of super-large financial transnational corporations.
Economic specialists say that the turmoil with Iraq is connected with deep critical problems of the American economy. One of those big problems is the abundance of the dollar cash, which has been distributed beyond the territory of the States for decades, giving an impression that there is no inflation in the country at all. As a matter of fact, all American stock indexes are overestimated on the level of up to 70%, while the American debt totals tens of trillions of dollars. To crown it all, the foreign trade turnover deficit is gigantic, for America's import is 50% bigger than export.
All those problems are very complicated, and it is impossible to analyze them in detail in a short article. However, it is clear that President Bush and his team was supposed to make a certain decision in order to break those chains. The chosen mechanism was supposed to do the following: to make all allies pay, to ruin the system of world prices on raw materials. This would allow to boost a new stage of development for the American economy, forcing rich Arabs to convert their money in dollars and to invest it in American banks and stocks.
This situation was formed prior to George W. Bush's presidency. There was a strong need to spur the psychological hysteria in the United States (9/11), to strike blows on terrorism and to stop the demise of the financial and economic influence. This is rather logic. However, this grand affair does not allow Bush and his team to stop. They have to move forward in order to avoid their own debacle, as well as the debacle of the American economy.
USA's victory in Iraq means that the American administration will be able to decide a lot of personal, corporate and national problems. If the USA wins the war, George W. Bush will most likely win the presidential election, while his team will rule American political and economic life. This implies huge economic profit, as well as the creation of the future society both within and outside the United States. If the USA wins the war, world prices on raw materials will drop, OPEC as a world economic subject will be destroyed, the growing competition of the European currency will be brought to nothing, and Europe will have to carry the burden of the economic crisis. Common American citizens will get something too, like low prices on gas, low tariffs and so on.
Let us pay attention to the Russian economy, to our consumers' interests in case if the Iraqi campaign ends up quickly. The collapse of world prices on oil will eventually lead to the economic recession in the Russian Federation. Both the economic and social situation in the country will be exacerbated a lot: tariffs will go up, relations between central and regional authorities will grow rather tense.
It goes without saying that Bush's triumph will immediately affect Putin's conduct. The Russian president is likely to show his “devotion to American democratic ideals,” appointing pro-American officials for influential positions in the Russian government. Vladimir Putin will also accelerate the process of IMF's economic reforms, which will eventually divide the energy industry and the gas industry. The economic result of the new stage of plundering is clear: to impoverish Russian people again and to make the nation become extinct. The foreign policy of Russia will be characterized with continuing concessions for the American government. Of course, Russia will support the abolishment of the Security Council and of the United Nations Organizations. After that, Washington will wish to have its influence in Russia's Caucasus and Asia. the United States will make Russia break up and then move over to Muslim Iran.
Democratic politicians say that Russia is too weak to be capable of doing something. This is another kind of the democratic nonsense. At first they cut the country and weakened it in every possible way, and then they explained that one had to wait for death in a passive way. On the other hand, Russia still has its heavy missiles, and the country's readiness to put them in action would disillusion American officials very quickly. To crown it all, political ties with Germany and France would also lead to the victory.
For the time being, we can witness a very interesting situation against the background of the American aggression in Iraq. Russian people denounce George W. Bush and Washington, albeit in a very passive way. Opposition’s appeals do not echo in Russian people’s hearts, although their well-being (heating and electric power) depend on the outcome of the Iraqi war. People are not aware of that. Senior Russian officials want to win the American administration over to their side, while Vladimir Putin and the Russian Foreign Ministry pretend that they struggle with the American expansion in Iraq. This is ridiculous. Most likely, the USA’s victory will make Putin take a pro-American stand.
What if the United States stumble? In this case Russian government will do its best in order to smooth out anti-American sentiments in their attempts to flatter with the country, where the lion’s share of Russian billions is stored.
The events, which have already taken place, allow to make certain conclusions of diplomatic and political character. First of all, this is a new dimension of the new world, which will be characterized with the opposition between America and the rest of the world. Second of all, it became obvious that the absolute predominance of the United States does not exist. It became clear that technological predominance does not make it possible to achieve the absolute victory. Thirdly, the essence of the American political system gets more and more obvious: it is ready to destroy whole nations in order to create the world order it wants. Fourthly, the completion of the Iraqi war will most likely lead to other conflicts in the region. The war will continue, the USA will get closer to the Russian border. The Russian opposition is supposed to realize that, and to let Russian people become aware of that too. Russia will have to experience hard times, although there will be opportunities for the victory. The future will give more facts and new elements of the new world, in which Russia is supposed to take the place that it deserves. Battling Iraqi soldiers and guerrillas stand for everyone's right to organize their country, whether it is Africa, Middle East, Russia, Western Europe, or Asia.
Translated by Dmitry Sudakov