United Kingdom: opinion polls give Blair huge lead

Despite the recent outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease, recent opinion polls give the Labour Party of Prime Minister Tony Blair an enormous lead over the second largest party, the Conservative Party, led by William Hague. The rural population of the United Kongdom is around 11%, these being most affected by Foot and Mouth Disease. However, this population traditionally votes Conservative and so the outbreak will not greatly effect, if at all, the Labour government in any election. Alex Folkes, of the Electoral Reform Society, gives Labour 400 out of 659 constituencies (electoral circles). He predicts Labour will win the election with 50% of the vote, against 31% for the Conservatives (also called Tories, after the party’s original name before it transformed into the Conservative Party in 1830) and 14% for the Liberal Democrats. In 1997, Tony Blair won 418 of the 659 seats in Parliament with 43% of the vote. Tony Blair realises that the danger in these elections is that people will think that labour’s victory is a foregone conclusion and might not be motivated enough to vote, allowing the Conservatives in through the back door.

JOHN ASHTEAD, PRAVDA.RU LONDON