In the event the Iraqi conflict lasts for 3-6 months, it will not influence the domestic oil market, Russian Presidential Economic Advisor Andrey Illarionov has told RBC. However, if the conflict lasts longer and Iraqi oil production facilities are destroyed, this might lead to some unfavorable consequences over the next 3-5 years, he said. In this event, oil prices would grow, Russia's economic growth would slow down, salaries and expenses would advance and the competitiveness of the economy would decrease as a result.
In the long-term perspective, more than 5 years, oil production will grow, if the situation in Iraq stabilizes, and oil prices will considerably decrease, he forecasted.
According to Illarionov, currently OPEC does not have enough production facilities for additional oil supplies to the world market.
More than 3,500 people were detained during unprecedented mass protests that swept across all of Russia in support of Alexey Navalny on January 23