Or Why to Some States is Allowed What to others is Forbidden?
The number of countries possessing nuclear weapon is growing bigger in the world. This is an obvious fact. By the moment, there are five old nuclear powers – Russia, the US, Great Britain, France, and China – and three new nuclear powers – India, Pakistan, and Israel (apropos, the latter, from certain political reasons, does not hasten to report about its nuclear weapon). In addition to this eight, there are several states, who actively use atom energy (or aspire to mastering it). Technology level of some of these countries, for example, that one of Japan, allows to them to get the bomb as soon as possible. While other countries, like Iran and North Korea, are not developed enough to create nuclear weapon in the nearest future, though they possess all necessary potential to create it.
Therefore, the number of countries increases, who in some degree possess secrets of nuclear energy production and use these secrets as they find it proper.
It does not certainly mean that all states aspiring for creation of their own nuclear station will immediately rush to bomb production. Nuclear energy is attractive for them mainly because of its relative cheapness. German example (this country gradually gives up using nuclear power stations) is not convincing enough, at least because economical potentials of Germany and, let us say, Iran are not to compare. Though, the question about nuclear power should be asked in another way: why some states are allowed to carry nuclear researches, while others are not? And that are mainly economically developed countries, who are “allowed,” while poor countries are not.
The logic of western countries headed by the US is pretty easy: nuclear energy could become a dangerous weapon in a non-stable, aggressive, politically unreliable state. Ruling regimes of these countries will attempt to use nuclear technology they possess to work out weapon of mass destruction. In case of success in this field, they could blackmail economically developed countries. Let us remember at least the North Korea case: this country broke off its agreement with the US and launched nuclear reactor in Yonben. Though, the situation is not as simple as it looks like…
Many observers noticed Pyongyang had not violated any international agreements connected with nuclear investigations. North Korea, who withdrew from the non-proliferation treaty, now has its full right to carry out researches in nuclear field. The treaty foresees responsibility for nuclear weapon spread, while Pyongyang does not spread nuclear weapon. Moreover, the US statements about North Korean nuclear weapon have not been confirmed yet. Even vise versa: South Korea which is the neighbour of Korean People’s Democratic Republic says there are no bombs in North Korea. So, while North Korea is not caught on selling nuclear technologies, Pyongyang can carry out researches in nuclear sphere.
It is obvious, why the US (and not only the US) so carefully looks after North-Korean nuclear energy programme. For Washington, the North-Korean regime cannot be called “responsible.” So, who could guarantee North Korea will never secretly export nuclear technologies (especially taking into account its economical situation). Though, so far there is no formal excuse for intervention in this country. By the moment, this issue cannot be settled. Of course, “force” variant is also probable: in this case “unreliable” states are simply forced to refuse from their nuclear researches. Though, the number of such states will still grow bigger, and the US, today’s world gendarme, hardly will be able to manage with them: it does not have enough power, means, and international support.
There is only one possible solution – to meet an agreement (without menaces) with each “unreliable” state separately. This does not sound encouraging, though other variants of possible solution are worse. The more the world is afraid of the US, the more it is possible that pariah countries obtain nuclear weapon. Then, the world will become much more instable…
Vasily Bubnov PRAVDA.Ru
Translated by Vera Solovieva