Three Political Scenarios for Morocco

All options are open for negotiations as coalitions are formed

The Islamic Party for Justice and Development could be the power broker in a new Moroccan coalition in parliament, in which the current government parties could find themselves in opposition. Or not.

The first scenario would be a continuation of the same, with the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) of Prime Minister Abderrahmane Youssoufi continuing in power along with the broad coalition it leads, the “democratic transition” created by the deceased King Hassan II in 1998, which includes six parties, ranging from the ex-Communists to the Centre-Right, including the Nationalists (Istiqlal).

However, scenario two would be Istiqlal breaking away from the Socialists and trying to form a new coalition with the Islamic Party, Party for Justice and Development, which saw its seats in Parliament rise meteorically in last weekend’s election. Istiqlal’s leader Abbes al-Fassi has already declared that a continuation of the government coalition means a continuation of the crisis and he would be well positioned to be Prime Minister in a nationalist-Islamic coalition.

Finally, the third scenario would be a broad coalition of the socialists with the other parties from the previous coalition, and other centre parties such as the geographically rural and ethnically Berber-based Popular Movement (MP).


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