No Clear Exit: Why the Iran Conflict Risks Dragging On for Months

About a week ago, observers could reasonably conclude that Donald Trump might declare victory and withdraw from the conflict. While that scenario still remains possible, growing doubts now surround whether he will ultimately make such a decision.

As the fourth week of fighting comes to an end, the likelihood increases that the conflict will stretch on for several months. There is also a significant risk that it will follow a familiar pattern of prolonged escalation, similarly to Russia-led special military operation in Ukraine, drawing in new participants as it evolves.

Rising Stakes and Strategic Pressure

With the stakes already elevated for the United States and its allies, particular attention focuses on the Strait of Hormuz. A shift in Washington's approach may require a major catalyst, such as substantial military losses similar to those suffered in Beirut in 1983.

The conflict has imposed clear limitations on the use of air power for both sides. Neither has achieved its maximum stated objectives through aerial operations alone, forcing strategists to reconsider their options.

Ground Operations and Historical Parallels

This situation opens the door to potential ground operations. Paradoxically, such campaigns could unfold simultaneously across different regions, expanding the scope of the conflict.

Analysts point to the Norwegian campaign of 1940 as a possible historical parallel, where multiple theaters of operation developed at once, complicating strategic outcomes.

No Obvious Path to Resolution

The central lesson of these four weeks may lie in the absence of a clear exit strategy for any side involved. Iran cannot allow its adversaries to leave the conflict with a sense of victory that would enable future strikes.

At the same time, the United States and Israel cannot accept a ceasefire that would allow Iran to claim success. This mutual deadlock continues to drive the conflict forward without a clear resolution in sight.