The rivalry between Pakistan and Afghanistan is unlikely to escalate into open warfare, although sporadic incidents along their shared border may continue in the foreseeable future, Balaji Chandramohan, an analyst at India’s Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses said in an interview with RIA Novosti.
No Full-Scale Conflict Expected
According to Chandramohan, the current tensions stem largely from Islamabad’s attempts to use Kabul as an instrument to advance its own geopolitical goals — a policy that, he argues, runs counter to both regional and global stability.
“Islamabad’s approach to treat Kabul as a tool for its strategic ambitions contradicts the interests of the region and global security,” Chandramohan noted.
The analyst added that Pakistan’s internal dynamics also play a role in exacerbating the situation. The political and military dominance of the Punjabi community, he said, hinders integration of other ethnic groups — particularly the Pashtuns, who hold significant influence in Afghan politics.
Clashes Along the Durand Line
Armed clashes erupted overnight on October 15, around 2:00 a.m. local time, along the Durand Line — the disputed frontier that Afghanistan refuses to recognize. In response to attacks on its border posts in the Kurram District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the Pakistani military launched artillery strikes against militant bases on Afghan territory.
Later that same day, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that both sides had agreed to a two-day pause in hostilities to ease tensions at the border.
Islamabad Signals Openness to Dialogue
By Thursday evening, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly emphasized his government’s readiness to engage in dialogue with Kabul, expressing hope that Afghanistan would take “concrete steps” to prevent further escalation.
“Pakistan is prepared for dialogue, but we expect tangible action from the Afghan authorities,” Sharif stated.
Despite the temporary ceasefire, regional observers believe that the fragile calm may not last, as deep-rooted ethnic, political, and strategic disputes continue to fuel mistrust between the two neighbors.
