Russian Offensive on Ukraine's Fifth Region May Begin This Summer

Units of the Russian army may soon launch an offensive on another region in the area of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, military expert, editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland Alexei Leonkov believes.

In his view, the offensive on a "fifth region" could begin as early as this summer, during the drier season.

"There is an intrigue around what exactly is meant by the "fifth region' that could come under Russian army control. The enemy will now try to guess the direction of our offensive and attempt to redeploy additional units there," Leonkov said. 

Preparations for such an offensive are already underway, and this is being done to further strengthen Russia's position in negotiations — whether with Ukraine or the United States, he added.

Launchpads for a New Offensive Exist in Two Regions of Ukraine

Such an assumption is based on the recent Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Turkey. During those talks, Moscow was again asked to withdraw troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (LPR and DPR) — a demand the Russian side rejected. A warning was also issued that, instead of four regions currently occupied by Russian forces, there could soon be five.

According to Leonkov, Russian troops already have footholds in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, from which they could advance further.

"But more broadly, we are seeing a concentration of forces along the entire line of combat contact,” Leonkov noted.

Russian Forces Advancing Rapidly in One Sector

Speaking about the situation in the DPR, Leonkov said that Russian troops are currently capturing new settlements at a rapid pace. Just last week, Mykhailivka, Torske, and others were reportedly taken. This, according to him, is due to the Ukrainian army's inability to maintain the staffing of combat units, forcing soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to either flee or come under fire.

Leonkov added that Ukrainian garrisons in Sloviansk and Siversk are at risk of encirclement, with active fighting expected there soon.

"The Kramatorsk-Dobropillia highway is now under Russian fire control. While the AFU may still be able to transport ammunition, evacuating equipment for repairs and bringing in replacements is becoming increasingly difficult,” he stated.

Buffer Zone in Sumy Region

As for the Sumy region, Leonkov noted that Russian forces are establishing a buffer zone there to ensure the safety of Russia's border regions and energy infrastructure. This zone is intended to protect border areas and critical energy facilities inside Russia.