Azov-Black Sea logistics failure: Russia scrambles to reroute grain exports

Russia is revising its grain export strategy following a critical logistics failure in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Damage to key terminal infrastructure and security risks have forced the Ministry of Agriculture to seek alternative shipping routes and consider resuming state procurement to stabilize the market.

Infrastructure Damage and Port Disruptions

The logistical collapse stems from targeted damage to transshipment facilities. On July 30, infrastructure at the Taman port was damaged; subsequent attacks in August hit terminals in Novorossiysk. Specifically, the Novorossiysk Grain Terminal—with an annual capacity of 8.5 million tons—suspended operations, and the Novorossiysk Combine of Bread Products, which has a capacity of 7.1 million tons per year, sustained damage. Additionally, on August 13, the Delo Group halted operations at the KSK terminal due to security concerns.

These disruptions are expected to significantly impact August shipping volumes. According to ProZerno data, Russian exports for the month may drop to 2.5 million tons—a 2.3-fold decrease compared to the 5.7 million ton average recorded between 2021 and 2025.

State Intervention and Route Redirection

During a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture on August 13, officials discussed measures to support the grain market. To prevent domestic oversupply caused by slow shipments in the Azov and Black Seas, the government is considering resuming purchases for the state fund, which currently holds 3.7 million tons. This marks a policy reversal; from August 2024 to June 2025, authorities focused on commodity interventions by selling reserves into the market.

To mitigate the closure of Novorossiysk terminals, Russia is redirecting grain flows toward alternative corridors, prioritizing ports in the Caspian and Baltic Seas, the Far East, and overland routes.

Comparative Impact: Russia and Ukraine

While Russia manages logistical shifts, its overall export position remains strong. In the previous season, wheat exports reached a record 46.5–48 million tons, an increase of 13–14%, with significant growth in shipments to Turkey (2.2x), Sudan (2x), and Iraq. The Ministry of Agriculture projects grain exports of 55–60 million tons for 2026.

Conversely, the Ukrainian agricultural sector is facing a near-total paralysis of its port system. Ports in Greater Odessa (Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny) have ceased operations as insurers raised rates and shipowners refused entry. Between August 1 and August 12, Ukraine exported only 590,000 tons of grain—a 70% decline. During this period, wheat exports fell by 4.3 times and barley by 5.6 times.

Global Price Risks

The disruption of deep-water ports limits Ukraine to fulfilling only 50% of its export needs. This is expected to create a storage deficit for corn—estimated between 8 and 11 million tons—by November. Given that Russia has rejected ceasefire initiatives in the waters, a resolution is not anticipated.

The combined effect of Russian logistical bottlenecks and the Ukrainian port collapse is projected to drive global food prices up by at least 25–30%, which will directly impact retail bread costs for consumers.

Source: This article was adapted from an original Russian-language publication by Pravda.Ru.