Russian Ruble Climbs to Strongest Level Against Dollar Since February 2023

The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate for the US dollar at 73.79 rubles for May 14, marking the strongest level of the Russian currency against the dollar since February 14, 2023.

The euro also weakened against the ruble, falling to 87.37 rubles — its lowest level since June 8, 2023. Meanwhile, China's yuan dropped to 10.85 rubles, the lowest exchange rate recorded since December of last year.

Energy Export Revenues Strengthen the Ruble

The strengthening of the Russian currency comes amid growing foreign-currency sales by oil and gas exporters. Rising global energy prices have sharply increased export revenues for Russian commodity producers, boosting demand for the ruble on the domestic market.

At the same time, the Central Bank's purchases of foreign currency and gold under Russia's budget rule remain limited because of weaker-than-expected oil and gas revenues earlier in the year. As a result, the regulator currently exerts only minimal influence on exchange-rate movements.

Analysts say higher oil and gas prices continue to support the ruble by increasing export earnings and foreign-currency inflows into Russia.

Government Still Expects Ruble Weakening

Despite the current strength of the national currency, the Ministry of Economic Development still expects the ruble to weaken in the coming months.

In its updated macroeconomic forecast, the ministry projected the average exchange rate for 2026 at 81.5 rubles per dollar. Earlier projections had estimated the rate at 92.2 rubles per dollar.

Officials warn that if the ruble remains significantly stronger than forecast levels, the federal budget could face additional tax revenue shortfalls because export revenues converted into rubles would decline.

Budget Pressures Continue to Grow

The strengthening ruble comes at a difficult time for Russia's state finances as the federal budget deficit continues to expand.

Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov denied speculation about possible deposit freezes or tax increases aimed at financing the growing budget gap. Instead, the government plans to reduce spending in an effort to stabilize public finances and restore budget balance.

Economists note that while a stronger ruble helps slow inflation and stabilize import prices, it also reduces budget revenues from energy exports, creating additional pressure on state finances.