USA blinds Ukraine by cutting intelligence information exchange with Kyiv

Ukraine will lose the ability to carry out long-range strikes deep into Russian territory if the United States has indeed suspended the transfer of its intelligence data to Kyiv. According to media reports, this restriction will apply to the entire territory of Russia except for the area of the special military operation (SMO). The US is thus trying to pressure Ukraine into peace negotiations. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to obtain American intelligence data from other NATO countries.

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Missile strike radius and map of Ukrainian targets deep inside Russia

Pressure Toward Negotiations

CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed a pause in intelligence sharing with Kyiv, Fox News said.

Data exchange has not been completely halted, though. The restriction does not apply to the SMO zone. However, the AFU will be deprived of information that enables them to strike deep into Russian territory, the report noted.

Earlier, Western media reported that the United States had also prohibited the United Kingdom from supplying Ukraine with American classified intelligence.

This ban applies to organizations such as:

• UK Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ),
• spy agencies,
• and intelligence divisions of the Ministry of Defense.

What Kind of Intelligence US Provides to Ukraine

The US provides its NATO partners (and until now, Ukraine) with vast amounts of intelligence data. This includes data from visual, radio-technical, ground-based, aerial, and naval reconnaissance, as well as intelligence gathered from drones. Some of this intelligence is provided in real-time. Naturally, such data is extremely valuable for carrying out strikes, for example, using HIMARS missile systems and other weapons.

Another category of intelligence that may have been restricted is access to classified data from global GPS positioning system. This data is crucial for adjusting targeting programs embedded in the guidance systems of cruise and ballistic missiles.

If the US has cut off the AFU from this information, Ukraine faces serious challenges. It is unclear how they will plan any long-range strikes. Essentially, Ukraine could lose all intelligence about deep Russian targets, including command centers, communication hubs, and fuel depots.

However, there is some skepticism about whether Ukraine will actually be deprived of all intelligence previously provided by its Western allies. While the US may have stopped direct intelligence sharing with Ukraine, it has not stopped sharing with its partners. For instance, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) could still provide data. There are doubts that the UK will strictly adhere to regulations prohibiting it from passing American intelligence to Ukraine.

Truth or dare

Statements from US officials, which were not made publicly but instead leaked to journalists, could also be released for the purpose of deliberate disinformation. Whether the US has truly left Ukraine without intelligence support will become clear over time based on developments in the SMO zone.

If strikes on Russian rear targets cease, if drones stop entering Russian territory, then it will be evident that the US has stopped sharing intelligence info with Ukraine indeed.

At the same time, it is European countries that provide a significant amount of intelligence to the AFU. Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate also has its own channels. Therefore, the US decision appears to be more of an attempt to make a demonstrative move. What is genuinely significant, however, is that the effectiveness of HIMARS and ATACMS strikes is expected to decrease indeed.

Details

The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS ) is a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the United States Army and mounted on a standard U.S. Army Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) M1140 truck frame. The HIMARS carries one pod with either six Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System rockets or one ATACMS missile. It is based on the U.S. Army's FMTV five-ton truck, and is capable of launching all rockets in the Multiple Launch Rocket System Family of Munitions. HIMARS ammunition pods are interchangeable with the M270 MLRS. It has a single pod, as opposed to the standard two for the M270 and its variants.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS ) is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile designed and manufactured by the US defense company Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV), and later Lockheed Martin through acquisitions. It uses solid propellant and is 13 feet (4.0 m) long and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter, and the longest-range variants can fly up to 190 miles (300 km). The missile can be fired from the tracked M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the wheeled M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). An ATACMS launch container (pod) has one rocket but a lid patterned with six circles like a standard MLRS rocket lid to prevent an enemy from discerning what type of missile is loaded.