When Russia takes Odessa, Ukraine will disintegrate speedily

The Russian Aerospace Forces continue striking the infrastructure of the ports of Odessa. The Russian forces may take the city as early as this spring, and it will change the course of the special military operation dramatically.

Arms corridor to Odessa stopped

On Sunday, November 5, six missiles struck the Yuzhny port in Odessa. Official sources in the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence said that a missile fired from a Russian tactical aviation aircraft in the Black Sea hit a civilian ship flying the flag of Liberia as it entered the port. The local administration confirmed such reports.

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, the missile hit the superstructure of the civilian ship. Three crew members (citizens of the Philippines), were injured, the pilot was killed, another port worker was injured.

Officers of the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) blocked the ship and did not let anyone enter the port. The intervention of the SBU suggests that the ship was carrying weapons, rather than grain on board. Surprisingly, the Russian Aerospace Forces have not showed such a reaction before even though the one-way Ukrainian "grain” channel in the Black Sea has been operating for several months and has let through as many as 70 ships.

The destruction of the ship flying a foreign flag will certainly affect the number of dry cargo ships sailing to Odessa. It will also affect the cost of insurance issued by Ukraine and international companies. It is worth noting here that Russia pulled out from the grain deal with the UN and Ukraine and does not guarantee the safety of ships.

Odessa as a base for terrorism and sabotage against Russia

It appears that Odessa has been in the centre of attention of the command of the special military operation for the following reasons:

  • There are constant terrorist attacks coming from the Odessa region targeting the infrastructure of Crimea and other regions of the Russian Black Sea region;
  • from the Odessa region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out acts of sabotage in Crimea, destroying ships of the Russian Navy;
  • Odessa ports are used as main transshipment point for the supplies of Western weapons, and their strategic importance increases against the backdrop of the closure of the Polish border (now by Polish truckers);
  • If a second front is opened in Moldova, Russia will not have an opportunity to defend Transnistria without taking Odessa.

It appears that after the capture of Avdiivka and part of the Kharkiv region, the Russian Armed Forces will concentrate their efforts on Odessa.

Odessa is key to success in the special military operation

Russia may take control of Odessa in spring of 2024, when Ukraine is depleted of resources and motivation to fight. If Russia takes Odessa under control, Ukraine will be deprived of its export-import potential. The West will finally lose interest in Ukraine, as Ukraine without a sea outlet is like a predator without teeth.

The loss of Odessa will cause the rapid disintegration of Ukraine, the demoralisation of Banderites*, and the Russian Armed Forces will be able to celebrate one success after another in liberating left-bank Ukraine (and beyond).

*leader of the OUN-UPA, recognised as an extremist organisation, banned in Russia.

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Author`s name Lyuba Lulko
Editor Dmitry Sudakov