Russian economy to continue declining till 2011, optimistic experts say

Russian economists consider the current economic crisis will last long. Almost all experts predict that the Russian economy will continue to decline this year. Optimistic specialists expect this recession to stop in 2010.

A number of negative factors have emerged in the Russian economy lately, which will only exacerbate the economic situation in the country, analysts believe. They include the ongoing decline of consumer demand and the reduction of investments in the fixed capital.

Some economists expect that Russia’s ruble will continue to lose its value. The factors capable to deteriorate the situation include the antirecession policy of the Russian government which proves to be unable to amend the situation. By experts’ opinion, the crisis has not reached its peak as of yet. The economic recession in Russia may reach the level of 10-15 percent this year and 2-4 percent the next year.

Scientists hold an opinion that there are two main factors able to influence the course of the Russian crisis. The first one is the state of the world economy, the economic situations in the USA and China and the level of oil prices. The second factor is the state of the Russian banking industry.

The second wave of the bank crisis may occur, though experts prefer not to discuss this question in order to avoid panic.

According to economic forecasts the estimated sequence of events is the following: 2009 -recession, 2010 - zero growth, 2011 – slow growth. Some scientists even refuse to make any forecasts as far as the Russian economy is concerned, as it is too unpredictable.

Experts claim that the crisis in Russia does not perform its function. The crisis is supposed to relieve economy of ineffective branches and companies. In Russia, many are supported financially to save the companies going bankrupt. All this makes the crisis linger on.

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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov