Russia is not exchanging Syria for Libya but rather ensuring continuity in protecting the Black Sea straits and expanding its influence in the region.
According to Paris-based media outlet Jeune Afrique, Russia has relocated some of its military personnel from Syria to Libya and is strengthening its presence through the "African Corps," pushing further south into the Sahel and westward toward the Gulf of Guinea.
Satellite imagery analysis suggests that the Ma'aten al-Sarra airbase in southern Libya, near the borders with Egypt, Sudan, and Chad, is being reconstructed to support these operations. The base would enable direct flights without refueling to military airbases in Niamey (Niger), Loumbila (Burkina Faso), and Gao (Mali), as well as a potential future naval base in Port Sudan-though Russian sources claim no formal agreement has been reached for the latter.
"The Russians are attempting to establish a presence similar to AFRICOM-the U. S. Africa Command," Jeune Afrique notes.
The publication signals possible plans for Russia to expand westward to the Gulf of Guinea.
"Beyond linking the Mediterranean and the Sahel, the next phase of Russia's reorganization in Africa will involve blocking the South Atlantic route to Western countries by pressuring coastal nations in the Gulf of Guinea into this new Moscow-led sphere of influence," the outlet reports.
This brings to mind how President Vladimir Putin interrupted an important meeting to speak with the President of Guinea-Bissau. Moscow also maintains strong relations with Equatorial Guinea, where around 200 Russian military instructors are stationed. Additionally, on the Atlantic coast, Côte d'Ivoire is closing the French military base in Port-Bouët, while Senegal is moving toward reducing the presence of French military bases in its territory.
The notion that African nations are being coerced into military cooperation with Russia is misleading. These countries are drawn not to a symbolic presence but to real counterterrorism efforts and equal partnerships.
"Russia's significant contribution helped stabilize and secure the Central African Republic. At the height of the crisis, we were abandoned… but Russia responded," CAR's Minister of Communications Maxime Balalou said in an interview with CNN.
The improved security situation across the region is also reflected in economic indicators. In the CAR, for example, the government expects GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024, up from just 0.8% in 2023-its highest growth rate since 2019. Inflation is also projected to fall below 3% this year.
In Libya, Russia is not only backing General Khalifa Haftar, whom it supported in his 2019 offensive against forces in Tripoli, but also forging stronger ties with the tribal communities of Fezzan, a vast desert region stretching into Chad and Niger. This provides Moscow with not only a strategic foothold but also access to natural resources, including the gold mines of the Kalanga Mountains.
From a broader strategic perspective, Russia's actions align with historical continuity and economic interests. Russia's ambitions in the region date back to the 18th century, when it established its Mediterranean fleet to secure the Black Sea straits from Ottoman incursions. While Russia's role in Syria may evolve, it will not disappear. Instead, the shifting dynamics surrounding Syria's role as a launchpad for African operations highlight Libya's importance – not as a backup plan but as an integral part of Moscow's long-term strategy to expand its strategic footprint and project power beyond its borders.