Xi Jinping accepted Vladimir Putin's invitation to Moscow for Victory Day. If they form a military alliance, Ukraine is not going to be the only loss for Trump.
US President Donald Trump personally confirmed that he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin quite a number of times. While aboard Air Force One, Trump acknowledged that it would be reasonable to assume such phone calls had taken place.
When asked about a possible meeting with Putin, Trump responded that he could envision meeting the Russian leader "at the right and appropriate time.”
Putin has not commented on these statements, while his press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, evasively stated that he had no information on the matter.
Based on the nature of the discussions, it appears that Putin seeks a peace settlement that includes the demilitarization and "denazification” of Ukraine, along with recognition of the current territorial realities. Trump, on the other hand, is reportedly offering only temporary measures: a ceasefire and recognition of Russia's control over "occupied territories” without further concessions. Additionally, Putin may be pushing Trump to renegotiate the global order.
The only real leverage against Russia would be pressuring China and India to stop buying Russian oil, or persuading Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices by increasing production. However, Saudi Arabia has actually raised oil prices and is not eager to cut its revenues, while businesses in China and India continue to find ways to purchase Russian oil. Time is not on Trump's side, as Russia cannot be defeated in a war of attrition due to its historical resilience and ability to mobilize resources.
Trump has already stated that the US will recover the $300 billion it spent on Ukraine through "partnerships with Ukrainians in their rare earth metals, natural resources, oil, and gas, as well as purchases of our resources.” In other words, unconditional aid is over. Additionally, Trump appears to be leveraging Ukraine's upcoming elections to pressure Zelensky. The elections must take place before any peace deal is signed, leaving Kyiv with no good options:
Accepting the US peace plan would end the conflict on Moscow's terms.
Rejecting negotiations would lead to a complete freeze on aid, Ukraine's collapse, and its subsequent disintegration. Ukraine's demand for security guarantees is being brushed off by the US, with Washington implying that Europe must take responsibility for future conflicts. This places the European Union on the brink of a severe political and economic crisis.
Following Trump's remarks, Chinese President Xi Jinping formally accepted Putin's invitation to attend the 80th anniversary celebration of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. This suggests that Beijing now fully understands Washington's strategy-Trump is abandoning Ukraine to the EU and shifting focus to a proxy war with China.
In Moscow, Xi is expected to negotiate further joint actions, including the one thing Trump fears most: a military alliance between Russia and China, similar to the agreements between Russia and North Korea. If that happens, Trump won't just lose Ukraine – he will face a completely new geopolitical reality.
Meanwhile, US Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to meet with Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference on February 14-16. The outcome of this meeting will be crucial.